Coin Bureau: Unemployment will rise

Said on Aug 13, 2022, at 16:47 in the video.

What was said
Coin Bureau

@coinbureau

“as quarterly earnings reports continue to come in short companies will accelerate the rate at which they're laying off employees and likely begin cutting salaries starting with top executives”
Watch at 16:47Housing Market Crash: It's Coming & This is WHY!!
PredictionUnemploymentwill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Within band

Reading when said

3.7%

Aug 13, 2022

Reading at close

3.8%

Aug 13, 2023

Change

+0.10 pp

Unemployment stood at 3.70% at the start of the window and 3.80% at Aug 13, 2023, a change of +0.10 pp (UNRATE, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.3 pp are treated as no change.

30 days

Within band

90 days

Within band

180 days

Within band

1 year

Within band

The window it was checked over

UnemploymentWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
0%5%10%15%20%201920202021202220232023Said on Aug 13, 2022
0%5%10%15%20%2019202120222023Said on Aug 13, 2022

Unemployment rate: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Within band3.7%3.5%Sep 12, 2022−0.20 pp—
90 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Within band3.7%3.7%Nov 11, 20220.00 pp—
180 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Within band3.7%3.6%Feb 9, 2023−0.10 pp—
1 yearR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Within band3.7%3.8%Aug 13, 2023+0.10 pp—
3 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct3.7%4.3%Aug 12, 2025+0.60 pp—
5 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Pending——Aug 12, 2027——
Why: 30 days

Unemployment stood at 3.70% at the start of the window and 3.50% at Sep 12, 2022, a change of −0.20 pp (UNRATE, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.3 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 90 days

Unemployment stood at 3.70% at the start of the window and 3.70% at Nov 11, 2022, a change of 0.00 pp (UNRATE, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.3 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 180 days

Unemployment stood at 3.70% at the start of the window and 3.60% at Feb 9, 2023, a change of −0.10 pp (UNRATE, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.3 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 1 year

Unemployment stood at 3.70% at the start of the window and 3.80% at Aug 13, 2023, a change of +0.10 pp (UNRATE, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.3 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 3 years

Unemployment stood at 3.70% at the start of the window and 4.30% at Aug 12, 2025, a change of +0.60 pp (UNRATE, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.3 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Aug 12, 2027.

What was said around it

means asset markets will continue to crash as people sell off their assets to meet their debt obligations mortgage rates will continue to climb too and this will cause the cost of new housing to continue its current fall at some point all the people who purchased extra properties for investment purposes will start to wonder whether it makes more sense to sell and some of them probably will if the value of their other assets has collapsed note that pension funds have lots of money in the stock market now as quarterly earnings reports continue to come in short companies will accelerate the rate at which they're laying off employees and likely begin cutting salaries starting with top executives this will result in less leisure and business travel which will mean lower profits for all those airbnb owners many companies will also probably ditch their office spaces to cut costs if they know their employees can work from home and this will lead to a huge increase in available real estate in you guessed it the busiest parts of the busiest cities some of these commercial units will probably be purchased and turned into long-term rental properties which will cause rents to drop squeezing more conservative

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all