Why: 30 days
Unemployment stood at 3.70% at the start of the window and 3.50% at Sep 12, 2022, a change of −0.20 pp (UNRATE, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.3 pp are treated as no change.
Why: 90 days
Unemployment stood at 3.70% at the start of the window and 3.70% at Nov 11, 2022, a change of 0.00 pp (UNRATE, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.3 pp are treated as no change.
Why: 180 days
Unemployment stood at 3.70% at the start of the window and 3.60% at Feb 9, 2023, a change of −0.10 pp (UNRATE, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.3 pp are treated as no change.
Why: 1 year
Unemployment stood at 3.70% at the start of the window and 3.80% at Aug 13, 2023, a change of +0.10 pp (UNRATE, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.3 pp are treated as no change.
Why: 3 years
Unemployment stood at 3.70% at the start of the window and 4.30% at Aug 12, 2025, a change of +0.60 pp (UNRATE, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.3 pp are treated as no change.
Why: 5 years
Not yet resolved. The window closes Aug 12, 2027.