Graham Stephan: Unemployment will rise

The window it was checked over

Unemployment rate: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

What was said around it

inflation caused a recession that more than doubled the unemployment rate the same occurred in 1958 1969 when interest rates were increased the 1970s and 80s recession was also caused by an era of high inflation high unemployment and rising rates while the 1990s saw a time of restrictive federal reserve policies 2000 saw the burst of the dot-com bubble 2008 sent us into the great financial crisis and now here we are again with similar patterns to every other recession before us it's also quite interesting that as inflation slows down unemployment historically goes up is shown throughout every year since 1949 most likely as a result of raising interest rates to bring down prices which again is what we're seeing today just consider this new companies are now reporting the highest level of layoffs since the peak of the pandemic with over 65 000 let go in 2022 alone with most of those in just the last few months it's also apparent the job market is beginning to slow down with jobless claims beginning to rise to the highest level since november on top of that it's also reported that only nine percent of tech workers feel confident about their job security right now and the economist peter schiff

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