Graham Stephan: Market correction will happen

Said on May 17, 2021, at 11:27 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“I wouldn't be surprised if prices and inflation stay high longer than expected and that Spooks the market into dropping a little bit further”
Watch at 11:27The Stock Market Just Flipped
PredictionMarket correctionwill happenChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Entry price (first close after the video)

$411.94

May 18, 2021

Total return, dividends included

+0.4%

SPY closed at $411.94 on May 18, 2021. Between then and May 17, 2022, its deepest fall from a running peak was −17.6%, on May 12, 2022. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a correction, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that a correction would come.

30 days

Incorrect

90 days

Incorrect

180 days

Partly correct

1 year

Correct

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-CRASH v4Incorrect$411.94May 18, 2021—Jun 16, 2021+2.5%Total return, dividends included—
90 daysR-CRASH v4Incorrect$411.94May 18, 2021—Aug 13, 2021+8.6%Total return, dividends included—
180 daysR-CRASH v4Partly correct$411.94May 18, 2021—Nov 12, 2021+14.2%Total return, dividends included—
1 yearR-CRASH v4Correct$411.94May 18, 2021—May 17, 2022+0.4%Total return, dividends included—
3 yearsR-CRASH v4Correct$411.94May 18, 2021—May 16, 2024+34.1%Total return, dividends included—
5 yearsR-CRASH v4Correct$411.94May 18, 2021—May 15, 2026+92.1%Total return, dividends included—
Why: 30 days

SPY closed at $411.94 on May 18, 2021. Between then and Jun 16, 2021, its deepest fall from a running peak was −0.7%, on Jun 16, 2021. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a correction, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that a correction would come.

Why: 90 days

SPY closed at $411.94 on May 18, 2021. Between then and Aug 13, 2021, its deepest fall from a running peak was −2.8%, on Jul 19, 2021. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a correction, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that a correction would come.

Why: 180 days

SPY closed at $411.94 on May 18, 2021. Between then and Nov 12, 2021, its deepest fall from a running peak was −5.1%, on Oct 4, 2021. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a correction, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that a correction would come.

Why: 1 year

SPY closed at $411.94 on May 18, 2021. Between then and May 17, 2022, its deepest fall from a running peak was −17.6%, on May 12, 2022. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a correction, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that a correction would come.

Why: 3 years

SPY closed at $411.94 on May 18, 2021. Between then and May 16, 2024, its deepest fall from a running peak was −24.5%, on Oct 12, 2022. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a correction, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that a correction would come.

Why: 5 years

SPY closed at $411.94 on May 18, 2021. Between then and May 15, 2026, its deepest fall from a running peak was −24.5%, on Oct 12, 2022. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a correction, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that a correction would come.

What was said around it

missed the 10 best days in the stock market over the last 15 years your overall return drops by over 50% and if you miss the best 20 days your overall return drops by More than 70% that's why buying in and continuing to buy in even when the market drops is the only historically proven way to come out ahead with as much money as possible now personally as for my own thoughts on this I think we're going to see a bit of a mixture between the market thinking the FED is wrong and the FED saying that Rising inflation is only 10 orary I wouldn't be surprised if prices and inflation stay high longer than expected and that Spooks the market into dropping a little bit further but long term I don't think it's going to be as bad as some headlines make it out to be and so many situations happening right now are really only temporary and will eventually be solved over time this is also a really great reminder to show you the importance of diversification and not chasing after returns of high growth companies just because they've done well previously for example tech stocks which have really rallied throughout the last year are not doing as well today as some of the value stocks and there's certainly

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