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Graham Stephan: Market correction will happen

Said on May 4, 2022, at 10:08 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“even though I wouldn't be surprised if housing prices Begin to Fall or the stock market continues to sell off I'm not changing my plan at all”
Watch at 10:08THE FED JUST HIKED RATES *AGAIN* | Major Changes Explained
PredictionMarket correctionwill happenChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Entry price (first close after the video)

$413.81

May 5, 2022

Total return, dividends included

−0.4%

SPY closed at $413.81 on May 5, 2022. Between then and May 4, 2023, its deepest fall from a running peak was −16.7%, on Oct 12, 2022. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a correction, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that a correction would come.

30 days

Partly correct

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-CRASH v4Partly correct$413.81May 5, 2022—Jun 3, 2022−0.8%Total return, dividends included—
90 daysR-CRASH v4Correct$413.81May 5, 2022—Aug 2, 2022−1.0%Total return, dividends included—
180 daysR-CRASH v4Correct$413.81May 5, 2022—Oct 31, 2022−5.9%Total return, dividends included—
1 yearR-CRASH v4Correct$413.81May 5, 2022—May 4, 2023−0.4%Total return, dividends included—
3 yearsR-CRASH v4Correct$413.81May 5, 2022—May 2, 2025+43.1%Total return, dividends included—
5 yearsR-CRASH v4Pending——May 3, 2027——
Why: 30 days

SPY closed at $413.81 on May 5, 2022. Between then and Jun 3, 2022, its deepest fall from a running peak was −5.9%, on May 19, 2022. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a correction, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that a correction would come.

Why: 90 days

SPY closed at $413.81 on May 5, 2022. Between then and Aug 2, 2022, its deepest fall from a running peak was −12.2%, on Jun 16, 2022. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a correction, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that a correction would come.

Why: 180 days

SPY closed at $413.81 on May 5, 2022. Between then and Oct 31, 2022, its deepest fall from a running peak was −16.7%, on Oct 12, 2022. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a correction, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that a correction would come.

Why: 1 year

SPY closed at $413.81 on May 5, 2022. Between then and May 4, 2023, its deepest fall from a running peak was −16.7%, on Oct 12, 2022. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a correction, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that a correction would come.

Why: 3 years

SPY closed at $413.81 on May 5, 2022. Between then and May 2, 2025, its deepest fall from a running peak was −18.8%, on Apr 8, 2025. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a correction, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that a correction would come.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes May 3, 2027.

What was said around it

a three to six month emergency fund at all times only take fixed rate debt if you're buying a house or a car and only buy Investments that you plan to hold for at least seven to ten years if yes these are the same things that I would be telling you to do when times are good and frankly you should always be practicing good financial habits even when the markets move up for seemingly no reason but the tried and true investors educate themselves on the markets they understand what's going on and then they buy and hold as usual even though I wouldn't be surprised if housing prices Begin to Fall or the stock market continues to sell off I'm not changing my plan at all because we have no clue what might happen when things might turn around or how long things will last so yes even though the Federal Reserve can bulk or shock the market and Drug pull everybody with higher than expected interest rates I just keep piling in every single day writing the roller coaster and no matter what smash the Subscribe button for the YouTube algorithm and also don't forget to check out our sponsor wealthfront Down Below in the description to take advantage of their offer before it expires so with that said

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham StephanMarket correctionwill happen

“short-term, I would not be surprised if we see a 5 to 12% market drawdown just because of market uncertainty.”

Sep 3, 2026 · after 30 days

Incorrect so far · 30 days−0.2%

Graham Stephana call under review

“I tend to believe we're probably going to see some short-term panic selling, a lot of volatility, and then it's just going to slowly grind back to normal,”

Aug 3, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephana call under review

“I tend to believe we're probably going to see some short-term panic selling, a lot of volatility, and then it's just going to slowly grind back to normal,”

Aug 3, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephana call with no clear direction

“as expensive as everything is, and as much as there is the possibility that something happens that we haven't accounted for here in the market drops 30% as it stands right now.”

May 4, 2026

Not scored

Coin Bureaua call under review

“That alone suggests we're nearing a local top.”

Nov 1, 2025

Not scored

Coin BureauMarket correction— not judged: the rule reads only the US stock market in general

“A moderate   correction of 15 to 25% however is a much higher  probability scenario given the extreme leverage   in the system a flush out of this magnitude could  easily be triggered by some negative macro news or   a geopolitical headline.”

Oct 10, 2025 · after 1 year

Not verifiable