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Graham Stephan: Market correction will happen

Said on Dec 14, 2022, at 0:21 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“the Federal Reserve is not looking like they'll be pivoting away from fighting inflation anytime soon and as a result they've signaled the brand new change of policies that are about to affect literally everything from stocks housing prices treasury yields and even the amount that you get paid in the savings account which basically means another Market reversal is likely coming soon”
Watch at 0:21THE FED JUST CRUSHED THE MARKET | Urgent Changes Explained
PredictionMarket correctionwill happenChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Partly correct

Entry price (first close after the video)

$389.63

Dec 15, 2022

Total return, dividends included

+23.1%

SPY closed at $389.63 on Dec 15, 2022. Between then and Dec 14, 2023, its deepest fall from a running peak was −10.0%, on Oct 27, 2023. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a correction, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that a correction would come.

30 days

Incorrect

90 days

Partly correct

180 days

Partly correct

1 year

Partly correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-CRASH v4Incorrect$389.63Dec 15, 2022—Jan 13, 2023+2.7%Total return, dividends included—
90 daysR-CRASH v4Partly correct$389.63Dec 15, 2022—Mar 14, 2023+1.0%Total return, dividends included—
180 daysR-CRASH v4Partly correct$389.63Dec 15, 2022—Jun 12, 2023+12.3%Total return, dividends included—
1 yearR-CRASH v4Partly correct$389.63Dec 15, 2022—Dec 14, 2023+23.1%Total return, dividends included—
3 yearsR-CRASH v4Correct$389.63Dec 15, 2022—Dec 12, 2025+82.3%Total return, dividends included—
5 yearsR-CRASH v4Pending——Dec 13, 2027——
Why: 30 days

SPY closed at $389.63 on Dec 15, 2022. Between then and Jan 13, 2023, its deepest fall from a running peak was −2.9%, on Dec 28, 2022. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a correction, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that a correction would come.

Why: 90 days

SPY closed at $389.63 on Dec 15, 2022. Between then and Mar 14, 2023, its deepest fall from a running peak was −7.5%, on Mar 13, 2023. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a correction, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that a correction would come.

Why: 180 days

SPY closed at $389.63 on Dec 15, 2022. Between then and Jun 12, 2023, its deepest fall from a running peak was −7.5%, on Mar 13, 2023. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a correction, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that a correction would come.

Why: 1 year

SPY closed at $389.63 on Dec 15, 2022. Between then and Dec 14, 2023, its deepest fall from a running peak was −10.0%, on Oct 27, 2023. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a correction, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that a correction would come.

Why: 3 years

SPY closed at $389.63 on Dec 15, 2022. Between then and Dec 12, 2025, its deepest fall from a running peak was −18.8%, on Apr 8, 2025. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a correction, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that a correction would come.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Dec 13, 2027.

What was said around it

what's up Grandma's guys here and welp it happened as of a few hours ago the Federal Reserve yet again raised their Benchmark interest rates by another 50 basis points officially bringing us to the highest rates that we've seen since 2007 right before the great financial crisis but this time the Outlook is a lot worse because we're about to see even more rate hikes throughout 2023 that's right the Federal Reserve is not looking like they'll be pivoting away from fighting inflation anytime soon and as a result they've signaled the brand new change of policies that are about to affect literally everything from stocks housing prices treasury yields and even the amount that you get paid in the savings account which basically means another Market reversal is likely coming soon that's why it's incredibly important that we cover exactly what they say is going to happen throughout 2023 the biggest change is being made what this means for you and then finally how you could use this information to make you money on this episode of a Toronto man could finally afford to buy a house after winning 55 million dollars although as usual before we start in the spirit of raising interest rates

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham StephanMarket correctionwill happen

“short-term, I would not be surprised if we see a 5 to 12% market drawdown just because of market uncertainty.”

Sep 3, 2026 · after 30 days

Incorrect so far · 30 days−0.2%

Graham Stephana call under review

“I tend to believe we're probably going to see some short-term panic selling, a lot of volatility, and then it's just going to slowly grind back to normal,”

Aug 3, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephana call under review

“I tend to believe we're probably going to see some short-term panic selling, a lot of volatility, and then it's just going to slowly grind back to normal,”

Aug 3, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephana call with no clear direction

“as expensive as everything is, and as much as there is the possibility that something happens that we haven't accounted for here in the market drops 30% as it stands right now.”

May 4, 2026

Not scored

Coin Bureaua call under review

“That alone suggests we're nearing a local top.”

Nov 1, 2025

Not scored

Coin BureauMarket correction— not judged: the rule reads only the US stock market in general

“A moderate   correction of 15 to 25% however is a much higher  probability scenario given the extreme leverage   in the system a flush out of this magnitude could  easily be triggered by some negative macro news or   a geopolitical headline.”

Oct 10, 2025 · after 1 year

Not verifiable