Graham Stephan: Market correction — not judged: the rule reads only the US stock market in general

Said on Mar 10, 2025, at 8:35 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“this is where the NASDAQ might soon be approaching according to the data this typically hits every 7 to 10 years and when it hits unfortunately it hits kind of hard during a bare Market the stock market drops on average 33.2% and it falls over a period of 363 days”
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PredictionMarket correction— not judged: the rule reads only the US stock market in generalChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Not verifiable

Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names a subject other than the US stock market as a whole; this rule reads SPY only.

30 days

Not verifiable

90 days

Not verifiable

180 days

Not verifiable

1 year

Not verifiable

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-CRASH v4Not verifiable————
90 daysR-CRASH v4Not verifiable————
180 daysR-CRASH v4Not verifiable————
1 yearR-CRASH v4Not verifiable————
3 yearsR-CRASH v4Not verifiable————
5 yearsR-CRASH v4Not verifiable————
Why: 30 days

Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names a subject other than the US stock market as a whole; this rule reads SPY only.

Why: 90 days

Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names a subject other than the US stock market as a whole; this rule reads SPY only.

Why: 180 days

Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names a subject other than the US stock market as a whole; this rule reads SPY only.

Why: 1 year

Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names a subject other than the US stock market as a whole; this rule reads SPY only.

Why: 3 years

Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names a subject other than the US stock market as a whole; this rule reads SPY only.

Why: 5 years

Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names a subject other than the US stock market as a whole; this rule reads SPY only.

What was said around it

also somewhat the case with Market Corrections which have happened on average every 16 months in fact if you're like me and you like averages so far the average stock market correction has been 15.6% and lasts for 71.6 days so it's perfectly normal and every healthy Market sees a regular pullback from time to time however after that we move move on to the more serious category and that would be a bare Market which is defined of at least a 20% drop from the peak and this is where the NASDAQ might soon be approaching according to the data this typically hits every 7 to 10 years and when it hits unfortunately it hits kind of hard during a bare Market the stock market drops on average 33.2% and it falls over a period of 363 days now it is important to clarify that these are just averages and it doesn't mean the next bare Market's going to fall exactly 33 % and last for exactly a year for example in 2020 we saw the fastest 30% drop in history since the Great Depression and then right after that we saw the quickest recession in history which lasted just 33 days so anything can happen although in terms of taking it even further from here things can always get a lot worse and that's what brings

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

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