Graham Stephan: a call with no clear direction

Said on May 4, 2026, at 13:23 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“as expensive as everything is, and as much as there is the possibility that something happens that we haven't accounted for here in the market drops 30% as it stands right now.”
Watch at 13:23Stock Market Just Hit ANOTHER Record - WTF Just Happened?!
Predictiona call with no clear direction
What happened
Not scored

The direction of this call could not be determined with confidence, so it is held out of the score.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked

The direction of this call could not be determined with confidence, so it is held out of the score.

What was said around it

and general investor enthusiasm have much more of an impact on the stock market than the amount of money in the system. So, in terms of whether or not we are in a bubble, here's the reality. In order for us to see a repeat of what happened to Japan, earnings would have to stall out completely, and the S&P 500 would need to rise to more than 14,000 for us to be at the same level. Or basically, if everything stays the exact same, but the prices double on everything, then yes, we risk ending up like Japan. But as expensive as everything is, and as much as there is the possibility that something happens that we haven't accounted for here in the market drops 30% as it stands right now. It looks as though the stock market might continue getting even more expensive over time. Plus I'm just going to say it. The fact that we're talking about a bubble here means that to a certain degree the bubble talk might be somewhat priced in. Honestly, all of this is just to say that now is the time to be cautious. Make sure you have a steady income. Make sure you're properly diversified. Make sure you have enough to weather through a 30 to 50% crash or correction if that were to happen. And as long as you

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham StephanMarket correctionwill happen

“short-term, I would not be surprised if we see a 5 to 12% market drawdown just because of market uncertainty.”

Sep 3, 2026 · after 30 days

Incorrect so far · 30 days−0.2%

Graham Stephana call under review

“I tend to believe we're probably going to see some short-term panic selling, a lot of volatility, and then it's just going to slowly grind back to normal,”

Aug 3, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephana call under review

“I tend to believe we're probably going to see some short-term panic selling, a lot of volatility, and then it's just going to slowly grind back to normal,”

Aug 3, 2026

Not scored

Coin Bureaua call under review

“That alone suggests we're nearing a local top.”

Nov 1, 2025

Not scored

Coin BureauMarket correction— not judged: the rule reads only the US stock market in general

“A moderate   correction of 15 to 25% however is a much higher  probability scenario given the extreme leverage   in the system a flush out of this magnitude could  easily be triggered by some negative macro news or   a geopolitical headline.”

Oct 10, 2025 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham StephanMarket correction— not judged: the rule reads only the US stock market in general

“this is where the NASDAQ might soon be approaching according to the data this typically hits every 7 to 10 years and when it hits unfortunately it hits kind of hard during a bare Market the stock market drops on average 33.2% and it falls over a period of 363 days”

Mar 10, 2025 · after 1 year

Not verifiable