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Graham Stephan: Market correction will not happen

Said on Jul 21, 2021, at 8:50 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“the managing director at Charles Schwab also said that dip buyers have stepped in very quickly and bought very quickly and that's one of the reasons we haven't had a full 10 correction and frankly I don't think we'll have one this time either for that reason”
Watch at 8:50The Next Stock Market Collapse | 6 Ways To Make Money
PredictionMarket correctionwill not happenChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Incorrect

Entry price (first close after the video)

$435.46

Jul 22, 2021

Total return, dividends included

−7.1%

SPY closed at $435.46 on Jul 22, 2021. Between then and Jul 21, 2022, its deepest fall from a running peak was −23.0%, on Jun 16, 2022. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a correction, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that no correction would come.

30 days

Correct

90 days

Partly correct

180 days

Partly correct

1 year

Incorrect

Details and evidenceReport a problem

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-CRASH v4Correct$435.46Jul 22, 2021—Aug 20, 2021+1.8%Total return, dividends included—
90 daysR-CRASH v4Partly correct$435.46Jul 22, 2021—Oct 19, 2021+3.8%Total return, dividends included—
180 daysR-CRASH v4Partly correct$435.46Jul 22, 2021—Jan 14, 2022+7.4%Total return, dividends included—
1 yearR-CRASH v4Incorrect$435.46Jul 22, 2021—Jul 21, 2022−7.1%Total return, dividends included—
3 yearsR-CRASH v4Incorrect$435.46Jul 22, 2021—Jul 19, 2024+31.8%Total return, dividends included—
5 yearsR-CRASH v4Incorrect$435.46Jul 22, 2021—Jul 20, 2026+82.3%Total return, dividends included—
Why: 30 days

SPY closed at $435.46 on Jul 22, 2021. Between then and Aug 20, 2021, its deepest fall from a running peak was −1.7%, on Aug 18, 2021. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a correction, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that no correction would come.

Why: 90 days

SPY closed at $435.46 on Jul 22, 2021. Between then and Oct 19, 2021, its deepest fall from a running peak was −5.1%, on Oct 4, 2021. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a correction, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that no correction would come.

Why: 180 days

SPY closed at $435.46 on Jul 22, 2021. Between then and Jan 14, 2022, its deepest fall from a running peak was −5.1%, on Oct 4, 2021. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a correction, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that no correction would come.

Why: 1 year

SPY closed at $435.46 on Jul 22, 2021. Between then and Jul 21, 2022, its deepest fall from a running peak was −23.0%, on Jun 16, 2022. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a correction, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that no correction would come.

Why: 3 years

SPY closed at $435.46 on Jul 22, 2021. Between then and Jul 19, 2024, its deepest fall from a running peak was −24.5%, on Oct 12, 2022. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a correction, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that no correction would come.

Why: 5 years

SPY closed at $435.46 on Jul 22, 2021. Between then and Jul 20, 2026, its deepest fall from a running peak was −24.5%, on Oct 12, 2022. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a correction, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that no correction would come.

What was said around it

that could be a good opportunity to buy in second Bloomberg reports that a lot of very young people are going to buy the dip in stocks this is noted by the fact that four other times this year the S P 500 has closed three percent below a historic high and each time it rebounded to another record they say there's no shortage of young investors out there sitting on the sidelines just frothing at the mouth to buy the dip and that's helping keep prices relatively stable the managing director at Charles Schwab also said that dip buyers have stepped in very quickly and bought very quickly and that's one of the reasons we haven't had a full 10 correction and frankly I don't think we'll have one this time either for that reason now third inflation could very well be transitionary like the FED says that means that once Supply chains start working again in the labor Market starts easing up then prices might start coming down and that could alleviate people's concerns about crazy hyperinflation now most likely we're gonna have to wait until the end of the year to see how this truly plays out but once you look at the charts as you can see over the last decade what we're seeing today isn't that

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham StephanMarket correctionwill happen

“short-term, I would not be surprised if we see a 5 to 12% market drawdown just because of market uncertainty.”

Sep 3, 2026 · after 30 days

Incorrect so far · 30 days−0.2%

Graham Stephana call under review

“I tend to believe we're probably going to see some short-term panic selling, a lot of volatility, and then it's just going to slowly grind back to normal,”

Aug 3, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephana call under review

“I tend to believe we're probably going to see some short-term panic selling, a lot of volatility, and then it's just going to slowly grind back to normal,”

Aug 3, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephana call with no clear direction

“as expensive as everything is, and as much as there is the possibility that something happens that we haven't accounted for here in the market drops 30% as it stands right now.”

May 4, 2026

Not scored

Coin Bureaua call under review

“That alone suggests we're nearing a local top.”

Nov 1, 2025

Not scored

Coin BureauMarket correction— not judged: the rule reads only the US stock market in general

“A moderate   correction of 15 to 25% however is a much higher  probability scenario given the extreme leverage   in the system a flush out of this magnitude could  easily be triggered by some negative macro news or   a geopolitical headline.”

Oct 10, 2025 · after 1 year

Not verifiable