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Joseph Carlson: Market correction will happen (a fall of at least 10%)

Said on Dec 20, 2021, at 20:43 in the video.

What was said
Joseph Carlson

@josephcarlsonshow

“the stock market could go down another 10 percent that's something that you have to be mentally prepared for over time”
Watch at 20:43The Stock Market Is Deflating (Why It May Continue)
PredictionMarket correctionwill happen (a fall of at least 10%)Checked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Entry price (first close after the video)

$463.06

Dec 21, 2021

Total return, dividends included

−16.5%

SPY closed at $463.06 on Dec 21, 2021. Between then and Dec 20, 2022, its deepest fall from a running peak was −24.5%, on Oct 12, 2022. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a correction, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that a correction would come.

30 days

Partly correct

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-CRASH v4Partly correct$463.06Dec 21, 2021—Jan 19, 2022−2.4%Total return, dividends included—
90 daysR-CRASH v4Correct$463.06Dec 21, 2021—Mar 18, 2022−3.7%Total return, dividends included—
180 daysR-CRASH v4Correct$463.06Dec 21, 2021—Jun 17, 2022−20.4%Total return, dividends included—
1 yearR-CRASH v4Correct$463.06Dec 21, 2021—Dec 20, 2022−16.5%Total return, dividends included—
3 yearsR-CRASH v4Correct$463.06Dec 21, 2021—Dec 19, 2024+31.8%Total return, dividends included—
5 yearsR-CRASH v4Pending——Dec 18, 2026——
Why: 30 days

SPY closed at $463.06 on Dec 21, 2021. Between then and Jan 19, 2022, its deepest fall from a running peak was −5.4%, on Jan 19, 2022. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a correction, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that a correction would come.

Why: 90 days

SPY closed at $463.06 on Dec 21, 2021. Between then and Mar 18, 2022, its deepest fall from a running peak was −12.9%, on Mar 8, 2022. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a correction, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that a correction would come.

Why: 180 days

SPY closed at $463.06 on Dec 21, 2021. Between then and Jun 17, 2022, its deepest fall from a running peak was −23.0%, on Jun 16, 2022. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a correction, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that a correction would come.

Why: 1 year

SPY closed at $463.06 on Dec 21, 2021. Between then and Dec 20, 2022, its deepest fall from a running peak was −24.5%, on Oct 12, 2022. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a correction, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that a correction would come.

Why: 3 years

SPY closed at $463.06 on Dec 21, 2021. Between then and Dec 19, 2024, its deepest fall from a running peak was −24.5%, on Oct 12, 2022. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a correction, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that a correction would come.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Dec 18, 2026.

What was said around it

unique assets they've collected a hundred percent of rents and i think they're really adequately hedged against inflation i think it's a really good bet with a high cash flow company that has above a five percent starting dividend yield so this has been one that i've been dollar cost averaging into as the price continues to fall so with my portfolio firmly in the red today and the general market firmly in the red overall it's not really a big concern for me if you're a long-term investor you're going to have days like today frequently the stock market could go down another 10 percent that's something that you have to be mentally prepared for over time i strongly believe the fundamentals will be the deciding factors of whether or not you make gains now moving on let's go ahead and venture into the fun territory of congressional members in my opinion congress is a group of people that generally speaking don't create much they're good at burning money taxing other people and complaining on twitter about anybody that actually does anything and elizabeth warren has become the prime candidate the prime example of this type of behavior elizabeth warren hasn't created thousands of jobs she

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham StephanMarket correctionwill happen

“short-term, I would not be surprised if we see a 5 to 12% market drawdown just because of market uncertainty.”

Sep 3, 2026 · after 30 days

Incorrect so far · 30 days−0.2%

Graham Stephana call under review

“I tend to believe we're probably going to see some short-term panic selling, a lot of volatility, and then it's just going to slowly grind back to normal,”

Aug 3, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephana call under review

“I tend to believe we're probably going to see some short-term panic selling, a lot of volatility, and then it's just going to slowly grind back to normal,”

Aug 3, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephana call with no clear direction

“as expensive as everything is, and as much as there is the possibility that something happens that we haven't accounted for here in the market drops 30% as it stands right now.”

May 4, 2026

Not scored

Coin Bureaua call under review

“That alone suggests we're nearing a local top.”

Nov 1, 2025

Not scored

Coin BureauMarket correction— not judged: the rule reads only the US stock market in general

“A moderate   correction of 15 to 25% however is a much higher  probability scenario given the extreme leverage   in the system a flush out of this magnitude could  easily be triggered by some negative macro news or   a geopolitical headline.”

Oct 10, 2025 · after 1 year

Not verifiable