Graham Stephan: Market correction will happen

Said on Sep 10, 2021, at 3:33 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“as for being overdue for a stock market correction, I would actually tend to agree with this.”
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PredictionMarket correctionwill happenChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Entry price (first close after the video)

$446.58

Sep 13, 2021

Total return, dividends included

−7.7%

SPY closed at $446.58 on Sep 13, 2021. Between then and Sep 9, 2022, its deepest fall from a running peak was −23.0%, on Jun 16, 2022. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a correction, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that a correction would come.

30 days

Incorrect

90 days

Incorrect

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-CRASH v4Incorrect$446.58Sep 13, 2021—Oct 8, 2021−1.6%Total return, dividends included—
90 daysR-CRASH v4Incorrect$446.58Sep 13, 2021—Dec 9, 2021+4.8%Total return, dividends included—
180 daysR-CRASH v4Correct$446.58Sep 13, 2021—Mar 9, 2022−3.6%Total return, dividends included—
1 yearR-CRASH v4Correct$446.58Sep 13, 2021—Sep 9, 2022−7.7%Total return, dividends included—
3 yearsR-CRASH v4Correct$446.58Sep 13, 2021—Sep 9, 2024+27.9%Total return, dividends included—
5 yearsR-CRASH v4Correct$446.58Sep 13, 2021—Sep 9, 2026+82.7%Total return, dividends included—
Why: 30 days

SPY closed at $446.58 on Sep 13, 2021. Between then and Oct 8, 2021, its deepest fall from a running peak was −4.0%, on Oct 4, 2021. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a correction, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that a correction would come.

Why: 90 days

SPY closed at $446.58 on Sep 13, 2021. Between then and Dec 9, 2021, its deepest fall from a running peak was −4.1%, on Dec 1, 2021. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a correction, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that a correction would come.

Why: 180 days

SPY closed at $446.58 on Sep 13, 2021. Between then and Mar 9, 2022, its deepest fall from a running peak was −12.9%, on Mar 8, 2022. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a correction, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that a correction would come.

Why: 1 year

SPY closed at $446.58 on Sep 13, 2021. Between then and Sep 9, 2022, its deepest fall from a running peak was −23.0%, on Jun 16, 2022. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a correction, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that a correction would come.

Why: 3 years

SPY closed at $446.58 on Sep 13, 2021. Between then and Sep 9, 2024, its deepest fall from a running peak was −24.5%, on Oct 12, 2022. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a correction, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that a correction would come.

Why: 5 years

SPY closed at $446.58 on Sep 13, 2021. Between then and Sep 9, 2026, its deepest fall from a running peak was −24.5%, on Oct 12, 2022. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a correction, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that a correction would come.

What was said around it

intensive and they had low margins compared to the Apples and Facebooks and Googles who could raise a hundred million dollars at the drop of the hat just by turning on an extra ad or two. And fourth, even Warren Buffett has scaled back with using this as an indicator believing that it should only be used in conjunction with other charts as well. So in terms of the Buffett indicator showing that we're 95% overvalued, I think it's certainly something to consider but it shouldn't be taken too literally without accounting for everything else. However, as for being overdue for a stock market correction, I would actually tend to agree with this. And price drops like these are actually a healthy sign for the market. In fact, since 1920, the S&P 500 has seen on average a 5% pullback three times a year and on average a 10% correction happens every 16 months with an average loss of just over 15%. So, if we see a drop, we should most likely all do our part to buy the dip. But, I don't think we can mention dip without dipping into what just recently happened with cryptocurrency. Right as El Salvador officially embraced Bitcoin as a legal tender, the entire cryptocurrency market sold off wiping

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

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