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Graham Stephan: Market correction will happen

Said on Feb 7, 2020, at 6:18 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“I guarantee there will be some point in the future where the markets end up going down”
Watch at 6:18How To Invest In 2020 | My Concerns
PredictionMarket correctionwill happenChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Entry price (first close after the video)

$334.68

Feb 10, 2020

Total return, dividends included

+18.0%

SPY closed at $334.68 on Feb 10, 2020. Between then and Feb 5, 2021, its deepest fall from a running peak was −33.7%, on Mar 23, 2020. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a correction, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that a correction would come.

30 days

Correct

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-CRASH v4Correct$334.68Feb 10, 2020—Mar 6, 2020−11.1%Total return, dividends included—
90 daysR-CRASH v4Correct$334.68Feb 10, 2020—May 7, 2020−13.5%Total return, dividends included—
180 daysR-CRASH v4Correct$334.68Feb 10, 2020—Aug 5, 2020+0.3%Total return, dividends included—
1 yearR-CRASH v4Correct$334.68Feb 10, 2020—Feb 5, 2021+18.0%Total return, dividends included—
3 yearsR-CRASH v4Correct$334.68Feb 10, 2020—Feb 6, 2023+28.5%Total return, dividends included—
5 yearsR-CRASH v4Correct$334.68Feb 10, 2020—Feb 5, 2025+94.7%Total return, dividends included—
Why: 30 days

SPY closed at $334.68 on Feb 10, 2020. Between then and Mar 6, 2020, its deepest fall from a running peak was −12.4%, on Feb 28, 2020. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a correction, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that a correction would come.

Why: 90 days

SPY closed at $334.68 on Feb 10, 2020. Between then and May 7, 2020, its deepest fall from a running peak was −33.7%, on Mar 23, 2020. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a correction, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that a correction would come.

Why: 180 days

SPY closed at $334.68 on Feb 10, 2020. Between then and Aug 5, 2020, its deepest fall from a running peak was −33.7%, on Mar 23, 2020. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a correction, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that a correction would come.

Why: 1 year

SPY closed at $334.68 on Feb 10, 2020. Between then and Feb 5, 2021, its deepest fall from a running peak was −33.7%, on Mar 23, 2020. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a correction, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that a correction would come.

Why: 3 years

SPY closed at $334.68 on Feb 10, 2020. Between then and Feb 6, 2023, its deepest fall from a running peak was −33.7%, on Mar 23, 2020. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a correction, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that a correction would come.

Why: 5 years

SPY closed at $334.68 on Feb 10, 2020. Between then and Feb 5, 2025, its deepest fall from a running peak was −33.7%, on Mar 23, 2020. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a correction, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that a correction would come.

What was said around it

everything goes up consistently in price they're investing with the mentality and expectation that the market should progressively and automatically just increase in value year after year and they've never really experienced anything where the markets have dropped for an extended period of time that I believe is a dangerous combination where people can get ahead of themselves and maybe over invest and then have no idea what to do in a bear market when they end up losing money and this is the reason why I think it's so important to bring this to light because I guarantee there will be some point in the future where the markets end up going down and that will be a true test of strength in terms of whether or not you have what it takes to hold through it continue buying all without selling and in terms of just how bad things have gone in the past well here's what we've seen the great oppression of the 1930s lasted almost three years with the loss of over 80 percent in the stock market then the late 1970s saw a recession lasting almost two years and a loss of over 42 percent in the market the dot-com bubble was very similar lasting about two years and losing about 44 percent in value and her most

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham StephanMarket correctionwill happen

“short-term, I would not be surprised if we see a 5 to 12% market drawdown just because of market uncertainty.”

Sep 3, 2026 · after 30 days

Incorrect so far · 30 days−0.2%

Graham Stephana call under review

“I tend to believe we're probably going to see some short-term panic selling, a lot of volatility, and then it's just going to slowly grind back to normal,”

Aug 3, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephana call under review

“I tend to believe we're probably going to see some short-term panic selling, a lot of volatility, and then it's just going to slowly grind back to normal,”

Aug 3, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephana call with no clear direction

“as expensive as everything is, and as much as there is the possibility that something happens that we haven't accounted for here in the market drops 30% as it stands right now.”

May 4, 2026

Not scored

Coin Bureaua call under review

“That alone suggests we're nearing a local top.”

Nov 1, 2025

Not scored

Coin BureauMarket correction— not judged: the rule reads only the US stock market in general

“A moderate   correction of 15 to 25% however is a much higher  probability scenario given the extreme leverage   in the system a flush out of this magnitude could  easily be triggered by some negative macro news or   a geopolitical headline.”

Oct 10, 2025 · after 1 year

Not verifiable