Compare
Graham Stephan and Joseph Carlson
Both records at the same windows, each against its own base rate; then every instrument both channels have called.
As of Nov 4, 2026, Callsight has checked both channels' calls at one year. Graham Stephan: 57.1% of the 84 calls that have a comparable base rate were correct, against a base rate of 47.2%. Joseph Carlson: 69.1% of the 68 calls that have a comparable base rate were correct, against a base rate of 61.2%. Every call links to the second it was said.
Choose two channels
The record at 1 year
Correct calls over correct plus incorrect, on the speaker's own calls, beside the base rate: how often the called move happened anyway in comparable past windows. The gap between the two, measured on the calls that have a base rate, is the edge, and it is the figure that can be read across markets.
Hit rate, 1 year
60.6%(104 calls)
63 correct · 41 incorrect (out of 104 checked calls)
After 3 years: 71.9% (89 calls) · on the 73 of 89 calls that have a base rate: 69.9% correct, base rate 51.9%
Above the base rate
+10.0pts
On the 84 of 104 calls with a comparable base rate: 57.1% correct, against a base rate of 47.2%.
Hit rate, 1 year
70.0%(70 calls)
49 correct · 21 incorrect (out of 70 checked calls)
After 3 years: 75.6% (41 calls) · on the 40 of 41 calls that have a base rate: 75.0% correct, base rate 67.5%
Above the base rate
+7.9pts
On the 68 of 70 calls with a comparable base rate: 69.1% correct, against a base rate of 61.2%.
Against its own base rate, on the calls that have one: Graham Stephan +10.0 pts on 84 of 104 calls, Joseph Carlson +7.9 pts on 68 of 70.
Share correct at every window
Bar: the share correct. Mark: the base rate of that channel's own calls. A window a record is not old enough for shows the date its first result can exist.
By market, at 1 year
Each share beside the base rate of its own market. A market neither channel has made its own calls in is left out; one with calls but no result yet says so.
Of each channel's calls that were correct after 30 days, how many were still correct after a year - with the opposite movement beside it.
Still correct after 1 year: Graham Stephan
Still correct after 1 year
9 of 16
Fewer than 20 calls have both results, so a count is shown and no percentage.
Over the same windows, 71.5% of 30-day moves in the same instruments were still in the same direction after 1 year (measured on 16 of 16 calls).
Correct after 30 days, still open at 1 year: 1
| 30 days / 1 year | Correct 1 year | Incorrect 1 year |
|---|---|---|
| Correct 30 days | 9 | 7 |
| Incorrect 30 days | 4 | 7 |
Still correct after 1 year: Joseph Carlson
Still correct after 1 year
84.0%(25 calls)
21 of 25 calls that were correct after 30 days
Over the same windows, 75.4% of 30-day moves in the same instruments were still in the same direction after 1 year (measured on 25 of 25 calls).
| 30 days / 1 year | Correct 1 year | Incorrect 1 year |
|---|---|---|
| Correct 30 days | 21 | 4 |
| Incorrect 30 days | 9 | 13 |
Where their calls agree and where they do not
3 instruments in commonEvery instrument both channels have made their own calls on: each channel's latest call, the day it was made, and how it turned out where the window has closed. Two calls are set against each other only when they were made at most 365 days apart. Most recently spoken first.
| Instrument | Agreement | ||
|---|---|---|---|
will fallJun 25, 2026 · Incorrect after 90 days | will riseJun 30, 2023 · Correct after 1 year | Made more than 365 days apart: not compared | |
will riseMay 23, 2022 · Not scored | will riseJun 23, 2025 · Correct after 1 year | Made more than 365 days apart: not compared | |
| No call on this one | will fallJun 23, 2025 · Correct after 1 year | Only one has a call to set against |
Called in opposite directions within 45 days
The same instrument, one call up and one down, made at most 45 days apart - with what each one was worth at one year where that window has closed. The most recent disagreement on each instrument, newest first.
Market stance: Graham Stephan
The channel's own calls only. Up or down counts price calls and crash calls by the direction that was called.
Predictions tracked
550
Not counted: 169 relayed from someone else, 155 own calls not scored
Judged calls
163
with a result at 30 days to a year
Share of vague calls
53%(506 calls)
(Of the channel's own calls, vague ones included, withheld ones left out)
Most called
Market stance: Joseph Carlson
The channel's own calls only. Up or down counts price calls and crash calls by the direction that was called.
Predictions tracked
245
Not counted: 19 relayed from someone else, 97 own calls not scored
Judged calls
99
with a result at 30 days to a year
Share of vague calls
54%(366 calls)
(Of the channel's own calls, vague ones included, withheld ones left out)
Most called