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Joseph Carlson: SPY will rise

Said on Jun 30, 2023, at 24:28 in the video.

What was said
Joseph Carlson

@josephcarlsonshow

“I do believe there's reason to believe that the market rally will continue”
Watch at 24:28Apple Just Hit 3 trillion: It Will Go To 4 Trillion Next Year
PredictionSPYwill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years

Recorded as the market, a word for a group: this call is judged on SPY, the stand-in the method assigns to it.

What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Entry price (first close after the video)

$443.28

Jun 30, 2023

Price at close

$544.22

Jun 28, 2024

Total return, dividends included

+24.5%

SPY closed at $443.28 on Jun 30, 2023. On Jun 28, 2024 it closed at $544.22, a total return of +24.5% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

30 days

Correct

90 days

Incorrect

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

SPYWindow checked
$350$400$450$500$550$600Jan 2023May 2023Aug 2023Dec 2023Apr 2024Aug 2024Said on Jun 30, 2023
$350$400$450$500$550$600Jan 2023Jul 2023Feb 2024Aug 2024Said on Jun 30, 2023

SPY closing prices, adjusted for splits. The shaded span is the one-year window: it starts at the first close after the video went public and ends at the last close on or before one year after the day the video was published.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-DIR v4Correct$443.28Jun 30, 2023$456.92Jul 28, 2023+3.1%Total return, dividends included—
90 daysR-DIR v4Incorrect$443.28Jun 30, 2023$428.52Sep 28, 2023−3.0%Total return, dividends included—
180 daysR-DIR v4Correct$443.28Jun 30, 2023$476.51Dec 27, 2023+8.3%Total return, dividends included—
1 yearR-DIR v4Correct$443.28Jun 30, 2023$544.22Jun 28, 2024+24.5%Total return, dividends included—
3 yearsR-DIR v4Correct$443.28Jun 30, 2023$741.00Jun 29, 2026+73.5%Total return, dividends included—
5 yearsR-DIR v4Pending——Jun 28, 2028——
Why: 30 days

SPY closed at $443.28 on Jun 30, 2023. On Jul 28, 2023 it closed at $456.92, a total return of +3.1% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 90 days

SPY closed at $443.28 on Jun 30, 2023. On Sep 28, 2023 it closed at $428.52, a total return of −3.0% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 180 days

SPY closed at $443.28 on Jun 30, 2023. On Dec 27, 2023 it closed at $476.51, a total return of +8.3% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 1 year

SPY closed at $443.28 on Jun 30, 2023. On Jun 28, 2024 it closed at $544.22, a total return of +24.5% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 3 years

SPY closed at $443.28 on Jun 30, 2023. On Jun 29, 2026 it closed at $741.00, a total return of +73.5% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Jun 28, 2028.

What was said around it

on the market returns that is exactly correct effect this has been said before but I'll say it again you could have the entire release of the Wall Street Journal headlines from here until the end of 2023 and even knowing exactly what headline news is going to happen for the next six months you would not be able to guess where the Market's going to end they do not correlate with each other sometimes they end up being inversely correlated so is this Market rally defying all expectations I think it's an incredible rally but it hasn't defied all expectations and I do believe there's reason to believe that the market rally will continue we have news of the greatest wealth transfer in history we have news that baby boomer generation has an enormous amount of stored wealth more than they're going to be able to use within their lifetime there's going to be a large windfall of inheritance specifically with Millennials year after year for the next 30 Years Millennials will inherit more and more money this is going to be a massive windfall of spending and something that should continue to propel the markets so in my opinion I think investors would still be better served today focusing on high quality

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

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Graham StephanSPYwill fall

“Historically, when the savings rate reaches an absolute low like this, the stock market tends to suffer in the years following. Now, I'm not saying that's a guarantee, but it's something at least worth considering.”

Jun 25, 2026 · after 90 days

Incorrect so far · 90 days+5.6%