Joseph Carlson: UBER will fall

Said on Jun 23, 2025, at 23:41 in the video.

What was saidJun 23, 2025

@josephcarlsonshow

“I think the market that Uber controls basically all by itself right now is going to be challenged by this new technology over the upcoming decade.”

Watch at 23:41I Keep Buying This Stock (I Bought More Today)

PredictionUBERwill fallChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years

What happenedafter 1 year

Correct

Entry price (first close after the video)

$91.65

Jun 24, 2025

Price at close

$69.67

Jun 23, 2026

Total return, dividends included

−24.0%

S&P 500 +22.2%

UBER closed at $91.65 on Jun 24, 2025. On Jun 23, 2026 it closed at $69.67, a total return of −24.0% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +22.2%. The call was that it would fall.

30 days

Correct

90 days

Incorrect

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidence Report a problem

The window it was checked over

UBERWindow checked

UBER closing prices, adjusted for splits. The shaded span is the one-year window: it starts at the first close after the video went public and ends at the last close on or before one year after the day the video was published.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked

Result at every window
Window	Result	At the start	At the end	Change	Benchmark
30 daysR-DIR v4	Correct	$91.65Jun 24, 2025	$89.94Jul 23, 2025	−1.9%Total return, dividends included	S&P 500 +4.5%
90 daysR-DIR v4	Incorrect	$91.65Jun 24, 2025	$98.51Sep 19, 2025	+7.5%Total return, dividends included	S&P 500 +9.7%
180 daysR-DIR v4	Correct	$91.65Jun 24, 2025	$79.31Dec 19, 2025	−13.5%Total return, dividends included	S&P 500 +12.8%
1 yearR-DIR v4	Correct	$91.65Jun 24, 2025	$69.67Jun 23, 2026	−24.0%Total return, dividends included	S&P 500 +22.2%
3 yearsR-DIR v4	Pending	—	—Jun 22, 2028	—	—
5 yearsR-DIR v4	Pending	—	—Jun 21, 2030	—	—

Why: 30 days

UBER closed at $91.65 on Jun 24, 2025. On Jul 23, 2025 it closed at $89.94, a total return of −1.9% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +4.5%. The call was that it would fall.

Why: 90 days

UBER closed at $91.65 on Jun 24, 2025. On Sep 19, 2025 it closed at $98.51, a total return of +7.5% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +9.7%. The call was that it would fall.

Why: 180 days

UBER closed at $91.65 on Jun 24, 2025. On Dec 19, 2025 it closed at $79.31, a total return of −13.5% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +12.8%. The call was that it would fall.

Why: 1 year

Why: 3 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Jun 22, 2028.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Jun 21, 2030.

What was said around it

reason that I haven't bought Uber stock is my concern over autonomous vehicle technology. Not just Tesla, but with Whimo. These companies are proving that this technology works, that it can work, that it can scale, and that it can take market share. Now, Whimo is far ahead of Tesla at this point. But Tesla could iteratively expand to more cities and saturate more territory. Some of the uncertainty with Uber's future is already priced into the company with a lower multiple and a lower valuation. And I share those concerns. I think the market that Uber controls basically all by itself right now is going to be challenged by this new technology over the upcoming decade. But we'll have to wait further to see how all this pans out. Now, moving on, we get to this new story, which is a follow-up of a new story which Sam Alman said that Meta is offering some of Sam Alman's best employees $100 million signing bonuses on top of $100 million salaries. So, just massive amounts of money. Altman said that so far their top talent hasn't decided to go with it. That's all we knew back then and maybe Sam Alman was exaggerating. Uh maybe he was a little bit overstating it. Well, that's not the case. We

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