Compare
Both records at the same windows, each against its own base rate; then every instrument both channels have called.
As of Nov 3, 2026, Callsight has checked both channels' calls at one year. Coin Bureau: 46.9% of the 160 calls that have a comparable base rate were correct, against a base rate of 49.2%. Graham Stephan: 57.1% of the 84 calls that have a comparable base rate were correct, against a base rate of 47.2%. Every call links to the second it was said.
Correct calls over correct plus incorrect, on the speaker's own calls, beside the base rate: how often the called move happened anyway in comparable past windows. The gap between the two, measured on the calls that have a base rate, is the edge, and it is the figure that can be read across markets.
Hit rate, 1 year
46.3%(177 calls)
82 correct · 95 incorrect (out of 177 checked calls)
After 3 years: 55.6% (90 calls) · on the 56 of 90 calls that have a base rate: 60.7% correct, base rate 47.2%
Above the base rate
−2.3pts
On the 160 of 177 calls with a comparable base rate: 46.9% correct, against a base rate of 49.2%.
Hit rate, 1 year
60.6%(104 calls)
63 correct · 41 incorrect (out of 104 checked calls)
After 3 years: 71.9% (89 calls) · on the 73 of 89 calls that have a base rate: 69.9% correct, base rate 51.9%
Above the base rate
+10.0pts
On the 84 of 104 calls with a comparable base rate: 57.1% correct, against a base rate of 47.2%.
Against its own base rate, on the calls that have one: Coin Bureau −2.3 pts on 160 of 177 calls, Graham Stephan +10.0 pts on 84 of 104.
Bar: the share correct. Mark: the base rate of that channel's own calls. A window a record is not old enough for shows the date its first result can exist.
Each share beside the base rate of its own market. A market neither channel has made its own calls in is left out; one with calls but no result yet says so.
Of each channel's calls that were correct after 30 days, how many were still correct after a year - with the opposite movement beside it.
Still correct after 1 year
65.5%(58 calls)
38 of 58 calls that were correct after 30 days
Over the same windows, 58.7% of 30-day moves in the same instruments were still in the same direction after 1 year (measured on 51 of 58 calls).
Correct after 30 days, still open at 1 year: 15
| 30 days / 1 year | Correct 1 year | Incorrect 1 year |
|---|---|---|
| Correct 30 days | 38 | 20 |
| Incorrect 30 days | 15 | 40 |
Still correct after 1 year
9 of 16
Fewer than 20 calls have both results, so a count is shown and no percentage.
Over the same windows, 71.5% of 30-day moves in the same instruments were still in the same direction after 1 year (measured on 16 of 16 calls).
Correct after 30 days, still open at 1 year: 1
| 30 days / 1 year | Correct 1 year | Incorrect 1 year |
|---|---|---|
| Correct 30 days | 9 | 7 |
| Incorrect 30 days | 4 | 7 |
Every instrument both channels have made their own calls on: each channel's latest call, the day it was made, and how it turned out where the window has closed. Two calls are set against each other only when they were made at most 365 days apart. Most recently spoken first.
| Instrument | Agreement | ||
|---|---|---|---|
 ETHcalls: 100 and 1 | will riseJul 30, 2026 · Correct after 90 days | will riseJan 15, 2018 · Incorrect after 1 year | Made more than 365 days apart: not compared |
 BTCcalls: 242 and 24 | will riseJul 21, 2026 · Correct after 90 days | no direction statedJun 17, 2026 · Not verifiable after 1 year | No direction to set against |
will riseAug 11, 2024 · Correct after 1 year | will fallJun 25, 2026 · Incorrect after 90 days | Made more than 365 days apart: not compared | |
will riseDec 14, 2022 · Within band after 1 year | will riseMay 18, 2026 · Incorrect after 90 days | Made more than 365 days apart: not compared | |
 DOGEcalls: 7 and 5 | will riseMar 21, 2025 · Incorrect after 1 year | will fallApr 16, 2021 · Correct after 1 year | Made more than 365 days apart: not compared |
 SHIBcalls: 3 and 2 | will fallAug 7, 2023 · Incorrect after 1 year | will fallOct 13, 2021 · Not verifiable after 1 year | Made more than 365 days apart: not compared |
The same instrument, one call up and one down, made at most 45 days apart - with what each one was worth at one year where that window has closed. The most recent disagreement on each instrument, newest first.
BTCBitcoinMade 37 days apartCoin BureauUp
“so a target of 4.5% annualized is certainly achievable over the next 10 years”Graham StephanDown
“I bet there's going to be plenty of short-term spikes over these next few years that are really tempting to buy into because you're like oh my gosh this changes everything and then as it does every single time in the past it eventually subsides and prices fall back down”The channel's own calls only. Up or down counts price calls and crash calls by the direction that was called.
Predictions tracked
935
Not counted: 205 relayed from someone else, 144 own calls not scored
Judged calls
431
with a result at 30 days to a year
Share of vague calls
60%(1,539 calls)
(Of the channel's own calls, vague ones included, withheld ones left out)
Most called
The channel's own calls only. Up or down counts price calls and crash calls by the direction that was called.
Predictions tracked
550
Not counted: 169 relayed from someone else, 155 own calls not scored
Judged calls
163
with a result at 30 days to a year
Share of vague calls
53%(506 calls)
(Of the channel's own calls, vague ones included, withheld ones left out)
Most called