Compare
Both records at the same windows, each against its own base rate; then every instrument both channels have called.
As of Nov 3, 2026, Callsight has checked both channels' calls at one year. Coin Bureau: 46.9% of the 160 calls that have a comparable base rate were correct, against a base rate of 49.2%. Joseph Carlson: 69.1% of the 68 calls that have a comparable base rate were correct, against a base rate of 61.2%. Every call links to the second it was said.
Correct calls over correct plus incorrect, on the speaker's own calls, beside the base rate: how often the called move happened anyway in comparable past windows. The gap between the two, measured on the calls that have a base rate, is the edge, and it is the figure that can be read across markets.
Hit rate, 1 year
46.3%(177 calls)
82 correct · 95 incorrect (out of 177 checked calls)
After 3 years: 55.6% (90 calls) · on the 56 of 90 calls that have a base rate: 60.7% correct, base rate 47.2%
Above the base rate
−2.3pts
On the 160 of 177 calls with a comparable base rate: 46.9% correct, against a base rate of 49.2%.
Hit rate, 1 year
70.0%(70 calls)
49 correct · 21 incorrect (out of 70 checked calls)
After 3 years: 75.6% (41 calls) · on the 40 of 41 calls that have a base rate: 75.0% correct, base rate 67.5%
Above the base rate
+7.9pts
On the 68 of 70 calls with a comparable base rate: 69.1% correct, against a base rate of 61.2%.
Against its own base rate, on the calls that have one: Coin Bureau −2.3 pts on 160 of 177 calls, Joseph Carlson +7.9 pts on 68 of 70.
Bar: the share correct. Mark: the base rate of that channel's own calls. A window a record is not old enough for shows the date its first result can exist.
Each share beside the base rate of its own market. A market neither channel has made its own calls in is left out; one with calls but no result yet says so.
Of each channel's calls that were correct after 30 days, how many were still correct after a year - with the opposite movement beside it.
Still correct after 1 year
65.5%(58 calls)
38 of 58 calls that were correct after 30 days
Over the same windows, 58.7% of 30-day moves in the same instruments were still in the same direction after 1 year (measured on 51 of 58 calls).
Correct after 30 days, still open at 1 year: 15
| 30 days / 1 year | Correct 1 year | Incorrect 1 year |
|---|---|---|
| Correct 30 days | 38 | 20 |
| Incorrect 30 days | 15 | 40 |
Still correct after 1 year
84.0%(25 calls)
21 of 25 calls that were correct after 30 days
Over the same windows, 75.4% of 30-day moves in the same instruments were still in the same direction after 1 year (measured on 25 of 25 calls).
| 30 days / 1 year | Correct 1 year | Incorrect 1 year |
|---|---|---|
| Correct 30 days | 21 | 4 |
| Incorrect 30 days | 9 | 13 |
Every instrument both channels have made their own calls on: each channel's latest call, the day it was made, and how it turned out where the window has closed. Two calls are set against each other only when they were made at most 365 days apart. Most recently spoken first.
| Instrument | Agreement | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| No call on this one | will riseMar 16, 2026 · Not scored | Only one has a call to set against | |
will riseAug 11, 2024 · Correct after 1 year | will riseJun 30, 2023 · Correct after 1 year | Made more than 365 days apart: not compared | |
will fallMar 11, 2024 · Not verifiable after 1 year | will fallJul 8, 2024 · Incorrect after 1 year | Same direction | |
will fallNov 20, 2023 · Incorrect after 1 year | will riseNov 20, 2023 · Correct after 1 year | Opposite directions |
The same instrument, one call up and one down, made at most 45 days apart - with what each one was worth at one year where that window has closed. The most recent disagreement on each instrument, newest first.
Coin BureauDown
“it's safe to assume that Microsoft will trade lower today”Joseph CarlsonUp
“I believe on the long-term future this will likely mean a better future for them than had Sam stayed directly at open AI because now he is part of the Microsoft team with literally unlimited resources”Coin BureauDown
“i'll caution that it's more than likely that we're going to see the crypto market go much lower later this year along with the stock market”Joseph CarlsonUp
“so my thought was maybe inflation will go go down quicker than expected the FED will do a pivot and the stock market will go up”The channel's own calls only. Up or down counts price calls and crash calls by the direction that was called.
Predictions tracked
935
Not counted: 205 relayed from someone else, 144 own calls not scored
Judged calls
431
with a result at 30 days to a year
Share of vague calls
60%(1,539 calls)
(Of the channel's own calls, vague ones included, withheld ones left out)
Most called
The channel's own calls only. Up or down counts price calls and crash calls by the direction that was called.
Predictions tracked
245
Not counted: 19 relayed from someone else, 97 own calls not scored
Judged calls
99
with a result at 30 days to a year
Share of vague calls
54%(366 calls)
(Of the channel's own calls, vague ones included, withheld ones left out)
Most called