Graham Stephan: BTC will fall

Said on Mar 7, 2025, at 14:54 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“I bet there's going to be plenty of short-term spikes over these next few years that are really tempting to buy into because you're like oh my gosh this changes everything and then as it does every single time in the past it eventually subsides and prices fall back down”
Watch at 14:54How Bitcoin Will Reach $1,000,000 | What You MUST Know
PredictionBTCwill fallChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Entry price (first close after the video)

$86,802

Mar 7, 2025

Price at close

$67,263

Mar 7, 2026

Return

−22.5%

S&P 500 +18.1%

BTC closed at $86,802 on Mar 7, 2025. On Mar 7, 2026 it closed at $67,263, a return of −22.5%. SPY returned +18.1% over the same window. The call was that it would fall.

30 days

Correct

90 days

Incorrect

180 days

Incorrect

1 year

Correct

The window it was checked over

BTCWindow checked
$40,000$60,000$80,000$100,000$120,000$140,000Sep 2024Jan 2025May 2025Sep 2025Jan 2026May 2026Said on Mar 7, 2025
$40,000$60,000$80,000$100,000$120,000$140,000Sep 2024Mar 2025Oct 2025May 2026Said on Mar 7, 2025

BTC closing prices, adjusted for splits. The shaded span is the one-year window: it starts at the first close after the video went public and ends at the last close on or before one year after the day the video was published.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-DIR v4Correct$86,802Mar 7, 2025$78,430Apr 6, 2025−9.6%S&P 500 −12.0%
90 daysR-DIR v4Incorrect$86,802Mar 7, 2025$101,509Jun 5, 2025+16.9%S&P 500 +3.3%
180 daysR-DIR v4Incorrect$86,802Mar 7, 2025$111,706Sep 3, 2025+28.7%S&P 500 +12.4%
1 yearR-DIR v4Correct$86,802Mar 7, 2025$67,263Mar 7, 2026−22.5%S&P 500 +18.1%
3 yearsR-DIR v4Pending——Mar 6, 2028——
5 yearsR-DIR v4Pending——Mar 6, 2030——
Why: 30 days

BTC closed at $86,802 on Mar 7, 2025. On Apr 6, 2025 it closed at $78,430, a return of −9.6%. SPY returned −12.0% over the same window. The call was that it would fall.

Why: 90 days

BTC closed at $86,802 on Mar 7, 2025. On Jun 5, 2025 it closed at $101,509, a return of +16.9%. SPY returned +3.3% over the same window. The call was that it would fall.

Why: 180 days

BTC closed at $86,802 on Mar 7, 2025. On Sep 3, 2025 it closed at $111,706, a return of +28.7%. SPY returned +12.4% over the same window. The call was that it would fall.

Why: 1 year

BTC closed at $86,802 on Mar 7, 2025. On Mar 7, 2026 it closed at $67,263, a return of −22.5%. SPY returned +18.1% over the same window. The call was that it would fall.

Why: 3 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Mar 6, 2028.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Mar 6, 2030.

What was said around it

cost averaging a Bitcoin ETF on a regular basis with money that I could afford to lose with a small part of my portfolio if it's worth more money one day great and if it's worth less well you know what that would suck but it's not the end of the world and buying into a Bitcoin ETF like this is incredibly easy to do without really thinking about it oh and lastly if there's one more piece of advice I could give you it's don't buy the hype and don't sell the fear I bet there's going to be plenty of short-term spikes over these next few years that are really tempting to buy into because you're like oh my gosh this changes everything and then as it does every single time in the past it eventually subsides and prices fall back down this is why you always got to just stick with the plan stay with the course keep a level head and no matter what hit the like button and subscribe if you haven't done that already so with that said you guys let me know what you think Down Below in the comment section I really appreciate it I will do my best to read and respond to as many people as I can thanks so much and until next time

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