Graham Stephan: USO will rise

Said on May 18, 2026, at 5:24 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“And with the Strait of Hormuz still not fully operational, oil prices are only expected to go even higher.”
Watch at 5:24It Started: The US Debt Bomb Just Imploded
PredictionUSOwill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 90 days
Incorrect so far · 90 days

Entry price (first close after the video)

$152.96

May 19, 2026

Price at close

$126.60

Aug 14, 2026

Total return, dividends included

−17.2%

S&P 500 +6.1%

USO closed at $152.96 on May 19, 2026. On Aug 14, 2026 it closed at $126.60, a total return of −17.2% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +6.1%. The call was that it would rise.

30 days

Incorrect

90 days

Incorrect

180 days

Pending

1 year

Pending

The window it was checked over

USOWindow checked
$60$80$100$120$140$160$180Nov 2025Mar 2026Jun 2026Oct 2026Jan 2027May 2027Said on May 18, 2026
$50$100$150$200Nov 2025May 2026Nov 2026May 2027Said on May 18, 2026

USO closing prices, adjusted for splits. The shaded span is the one-year window: it starts at the first close after the video went public and ends at the last close on or before one year after the day the video was published.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-DIR v4Incorrect$152.96May 19, 2026$114.23Jun 17, 2026−25.3%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 +1.0%
90 daysR-DIR v4Incorrect$152.96May 19, 2026$126.60Aug 14, 2026−17.2%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 +6.1%
180 daysR-DIR v4Pending——Nov 13, 2026——
1 yearR-DIR v4Pending——May 18, 2027——
3 yearsR-DIR v4Pending——May 17, 2029——
5 yearsR-DIR v4Pending——May 16, 2031——
Why: 30 days

USO closed at $152.96 on May 19, 2026. On Jun 17, 2026 it closed at $114.23, a total return of −25.3% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +1.0%. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 90 days

USO closed at $152.96 on May 19, 2026. On Aug 14, 2026 it closed at $126.60, a total return of −17.2% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +6.1%. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 180 days

Not yet resolved. The window closes Nov 13, 2026.

Why: 1 year

Not yet resolved. The window closes May 18, 2027.

Why: 3 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes May 17, 2029.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes May 16, 2031.

What was said around it

to hit the market at the exact same time. Starting with number one, inflation. In this case, last week CPI jumped 3.8% year-over-year, the highest reading since May of 2023. And PPI, which measures wholesale inflation as in the inflation that businesses pay before it hits the customer, rose 6% year-over-year, the fastest pace since 2022, implying that inflation is coming back faster and stronger than ever, mainly the result of number two, oil. In this case, the conflict throughout the Middle East caused oil prices to spike past $100 a barrel. And with the Strait of Hormuz still not fully operational, oil prices are only expected to go even higher. Plus, this doesn't just affect gas prices. Higher oil literally flows throughout the entire economy. We're talking shipping, trucking, manufacturing, food production, and more. So, when oil spikes this much, inflation eventually follows, which is not helped by number three, the government is flooding the market with debt. The fact is, we are running roughly two trillion dollars a year in annual deficits. We are spending significantly more than we make, and this means that the Treasury is to constantly issue new bonds to raise more money to pay

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