Graham Stephan: DOGE will fall

Said on Apr 16, 2021, at 11:04 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“just as quickly as it could go up it can and will go back down just as people bought in gamestop at 450 a share and subsequently lost 65 of their investment people will lose money on dogecoin if they don't know what they're doing”
Watch at 11:04Dogecoin Is Out Of Control
PredictionDOGEwill fallChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Entry price (first close after the video)

$0.365443

Apr 16, 2021

Price at close

$0.1435

Apr 16, 2022

Return

−60.7%

Bitcoin −34.2%

DOGE closed at $0.365443 on Apr 16, 2021. On Apr 16, 2022 it closed at $0.1435, a return of −60.7%. BTC returned −34.2% over the same window. The call was that it would fall.

30 days

Incorrect

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

The window it was checked over

DOGEWindow checked
$-0.2$0$0.2$0.4$0.6$0.8Oct 2020Feb 2021Jun 2021Oct 2021Feb 2022Jun 2022Said on Apr 16, 2021
$-0.2$0$0.2$0.4$0.6$0.8Oct 2020May 2021Nov 2021Jun 2022Said on Apr 16, 2021

DOGE closing prices, adjusted for splits. The shaded span is the one-year window: it starts at the first close after the video went public and ends at the last close on or before one year after the day the video was published.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-DIR v4Incorrect$0.365443Apr 16, 2021$0.5137May 16, 2021+40.6%Bitcoin −24.3%
90 daysR-DIR v4Correct$0.365443Apr 16, 2021$0.18534Jul 15, 2021−49.3%Bitcoin −48.0%
180 daysR-DIR v4Correct$0.365443Apr 16, 2021$0.2326Oct 13, 2021−36.4%Bitcoin −6.5%
1 yearR-DIR v4Correct$0.365443Apr 16, 2021$0.1435Apr 16, 2022−60.7%Bitcoin −34.2%
3 yearsR-DIR v4Correct$0.365443Apr 16, 2021$0.16123Apr 15, 2024−55.9%Bitcoin +3.4%
5 yearsR-DIR v4Correct$0.365443Apr 16, 2021$0.09488Apr 15, 2026−74.0%Bitcoin +22.0%
Why: 30 days

DOGE closed at $0.365443 on Apr 16, 2021. On May 16, 2021 it closed at $0.5137, a return of +40.6%. BTC returned −24.3% over the same window. The call was that it would fall.

Why: 90 days

DOGE closed at $0.365443 on Apr 16, 2021. On Jul 15, 2021 it closed at $0.18534, a return of −49.3%. BTC returned −48.0% over the same window. The call was that it would fall.

Why: 180 days

DOGE closed at $0.365443 on Apr 16, 2021. On Oct 13, 2021 it closed at $0.2326, a return of −36.4%. BTC returned −6.5% over the same window. The call was that it would fall.

Why: 1 year

DOGE closed at $0.365443 on Apr 16, 2021. On Apr 16, 2022 it closed at $0.1435, a return of −60.7%. BTC returned −34.2% over the same window. The call was that it would fall.

Why: 3 years

DOGE closed at $0.365443 on Apr 16, 2021. On Apr 15, 2024 it closed at $0.16123, a return of −55.9%. BTC returned +3.4% over the same window. The call was that it would fall.

Why: 5 years

DOGE closed at $0.365443 on Apr 16, 2021. On Apr 15, 2026 it closed at $0.09488, a return of −74.0%. BTC returned +22.0% over the same window. The call was that it would fall.

What was said around it

price of dogecoin is not driven by any sort of fundamental analysis or real-world use case but instead the enthusiasm and excitement of an unsuspecting meme combined with the hope of one day making a whole bunch of money from it when you're buying dogecoin what you're really buying into is something that shouldn't be taken too seriously that's just for fun that people trust and if it winds up being something in the future then so be it but i do have to mention a word of caution that just as quickly as it could go up it can and will go back down just as people bought in gamestop at 450 a share and subsequently lost 65 of their investment people will lose money on dogecoin if they don't know what they're doing so my advice is this if you're currently holding on to dogecoin just go and ask yourself the question would you buy dogecoin at the price it's currently trading at if the answer to that is no then the question becomes why are you holding on to it because essentially you not selling is the same thing as you buying in at the price it's currently at ultimately it really just comes down to this you're either going to regret not holding onto it longer or not selling it sooner pick your

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

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