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How often are price targets hit? YouTube targets, checked
By Callsight · Published Oct 9, 2026 · Updated Oct 9, 2026
Figures as of Nov 4, 2026. They change as new windows settle.
As of Nov 4, 2026, Callsight has recorded 110 price targets set on four finance and crypto YouTube channels, each read at the deadline the speaker named or at one year. Of Coin Bureau’s 85, 25 were reached and 35 were not; of Joseph Carlson’s 15, 5 were reached and 3 were not. Of Coin Bureau’s targets more than double the price, 2 of 18 were reached.
How often were these YouTube price targets hit?
Every target counted here was said in a YouTube video by one of four channels Callsight tracks. Studies of Wall Street analysts’ price targets ask the same question about a different group of forecasters, and what they found is in a section of its own further down.
Each target is read at one window: the deadline the speaker named, where the card shows one, or one year from the first close after the video, where none was named. It counts as reached, and Correct, if the price touched it inside that window. Each card leads with the one-year window, the headline the method fixes for every call, so a card can show a different verdict from the one counted here. No base rate fits a price target well (the reason is below), so the table gives counts and no percentages.
Repeats count once, as they do across the site, with one change. The record’s scores treat every call on one coin or share in the same direction inside one 90-day block as a single call, and a block of targets can hold a level near the price and another far from it. Here each block is split by distance band (the bands are in the next section), and the targets of one block in one band count as one, so a far target that was missed is never folded into a near one that was reached. These counts, and the reading at a named deadline, are this article’s own, so they differ from the record on each channel’s page.
| Channel | Targets | Correct | Incorrect | Partly correct | Pending | Not verifiable |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coin Bureau | 85 | 25 | 31 | 4 | 3 | 22 |
| Joseph Carlson | 15 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 |
| Andrei Jikh | 6 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Graham Stephan | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
Not verifiable covers two kinds of target. Most were stated as a percentage, a multiple or an index level (17 of Coin Bureau’s, 4 of Joseph Carlson’s, 1 of Andrei Jikh’s and 3 of Graham Stephan’s). The method reads only a dollar figure as a price. A percentage said on air can be a yearly return or a multiple of the price, and turning one into a price could credit a speaker with a target they did not set. The rest are dollar targets no rule could test, such as a commodity’s price set against a fund’s share price, or a level the price had already passed when the video went out.
Andrei Jikh and Graham Stephan set few targets in their own words. Andrei Jikh’s 6 stand at 3 Incorrect and 3 Not verifiable, and Graham Stephan’s 4 at 1 Incorrect and 3 Not verifiable. Samples this small say little on their own, and the distance tables below leave them out.
Does the distance to the target matter?
Distance is how far the target stood from the entry price, the first close after the video went public, in the direction the call named. A rise from $100 to $125 is 25%, and so is a fall from $100 to $75. It is the plainest measure the record has of how much a target asked of the price, so each channel’s table below sorts its targets by it. Only targets a rule could test have a distance.
Coin Bureau
| Distance from the entry price | Correct | Incorrect | Partly correct | Pending |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 10% | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| 10 to 25% | 8 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| 25 to 50% | 7 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| 50 to 100% | 3 | 7 | 2 | 1 |
| Over 100% | 2 | 15 | 1 | 0 |
On Coin Bureau’s targets, those within 10% of the price were reached more often than those more than double it. Within 10% of the price, 5 were reached and 1 was not, with 2 still open; more than double the price, 2 were reached and 16 were not.
The two cards below come from the middle of the table and from its last row. The first target stood 30% above the price, and the price reached it inside 30 days:
“it seems to have broken through a significant zone of price resistance and could continue to rally into the 50 range”Entry price (first close after the video)
$38.39
Mar 21, 2022
Price at close
$20.90
Mar 21, 2023
Return
−45.6%
ETC was $38.39 on Mar 21, 2022. The target was $50.00. Between then and Mar 21, 2023 the high was $52.66, so the level was reached.
30 days
Correct
90 days
Correct
180 days
Correct
1 year
Correct
No deadline was stated; the headline is the one-year window, where it is Correct.
The second stood 193% above the price, with the deadline shown on its card:
“we believe that xrp could rise as high as $7 by the end of the year though it could be closer to $5”Entry price (first close after the video)
$2.39
Mar 15, 2025
Price at close
$1.45
Mar 15, 2026
Return
−39.4%
XRP was $2.39 on Mar 15, 2025. The target was $7.00. Between then and Mar 15, 2026 the high was $3.66, so the level was not reached.
30 days
Incorrect
90 days
Incorrect
180 days
Incorrect
1 year
Incorrect
At that deadline it is Incorrect, as it is at one year. The highest price before the deadline was $3.66.
Joseph Carlson
| Distance from the entry price | Correct | Incorrect | Partly correct | Pending |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 10% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 to 25% | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| 25 to 50% | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 50 to 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Over 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
With 10 targets in the table, the rows are small: the largest holds 6.
Only 3 of Andrei Jikh’s targets and 1 of Graham Stephan’s have a distance, too few to sort.
Does a stated deadline make a difference?
A target read at one year gives the price a year to reach it. A deadline the speaker named can be shorter, which leaves the price less time: 10 of Coin Bureau’s 14 targets with a deadline set it less than a year after the call, and 1 of Joseph Carlson’s 3.
| Channel | Deadline | Targets | Correct | Incorrect | Partly correct | Pending | Not verifiable |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coin Bureau | Named | 14 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Coin Bureau | None, read at one year | 71 | 23 | 23 | 4 | 3 | 18 |
| Joseph Carlson | Named | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Joseph Carlson | None, read at one year | 12 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
On Coin Bureau’s targets with a deadline, 2 were reached by it and 8 were not. Of those without one, 23 were reached within a year and 27 were not, with 3 still open.
Joseph Carlson set the two targets below on AMZN, the first with a deadline and the second without. The first stood 19% above the price, with the deadline shown on its card:
“I'm raising my price Target to now 260 I think this company is going to go up to 260 this year”Entry price (first close after the video)
$218.46
Jan 13, 2025
Price at close
$247.38
Jan 9, 2026
Return
+13.2%
AMZN was $218.46 on Jan 13, 2025. The target was $260.00. Between then and Jan 9, 2026 the high was $258.60, so the level was not reached.
30 days
Incorrect
90 days
Incorrect
180 days
Incorrect
1 year
Partly correct
At that deadline it is Incorrect. The card’s headline is the one-year window, where it is Partly correct: by then the price had covered at least 50% of the way without touching the target.
The second stood 32% above the price:
“I still believe over time investors will get the message and it will go from 210 to 220 to 240 up to 280 and beyond.”Entry price (first close after the video)
$211.65
Aug 4, 2025
Price at close
$277.42
Aug 4, 2026
Return
+31.1%
AMZN was $211.65 on Aug 4, 2025. The target was $280.00. Between then and Aug 4, 2026 the high was $287.20, so the level was reached.
30 days
Incorrect
90 days
Incorrect
180 days
Incorrect
1 year
Correct
No deadline was stated; the headline is the one-year window, where it is Correct.
His other calls on shares are in the article on Joseph Carlson’s stock calls.
The newest calls still open at one year, targets among them, are on the signals page.
What if the price gets there after the deadline?
Then the target does not count as reached. The rule asks whether the price touched the target inside the window it is read at, and a touch after the deadline shows only in the card’s longer windows.
“taken together these indicators suggest that another leg lower could be on the cards for eth in the short term It's weekly chart suggests it could fall as low as 2.5k in the coming weeks”Entry price (first close after the video)
$3,421
Jul 2, 2024
Price at close
$2,570
Jul 2, 2025
Return
−24.9%
ETH was $3,421 on Jul 2, 2024. The target was $2,500. Between then and Jul 2, 2025 the low was $1,385, so the level was reached.
30 days
Incorrect
90 days
Correct
180 days
Correct
1 year
Correct
The deadline on its card is Jul 23, 2024, 20 days after the video: the record’s reading of the span of weeks in its words. ETH’s low by then was $2,810, so at the deadline it is Incorrect, and it had not fallen to $2,500 within 30 days either. The price reached that level later, and the card shows it Correct at 90 days. Every table above reads it at the deadline.
Are crypto targets different from stock targets?
On the two channels with distance tables, the question comes down to which channel set the target. Coin Bureau’s 63 targets that a rule could test are all on coins; Joseph Carlson’s 10 are all on shares or funds. A comparison of coins with shares here would be a comparison of channels, and this article does not make one.
Bitcoin is the coin with the most targets on Coin Bureau: 24. Andrei Jikh set 3 Bitcoin targets and Graham Stephan 1. The article on how accurate YouTubers’ Bitcoin price predictions are sets these targets beside each channel’s other Bitcoin calls, counting each statement at one year, repeats included. The Bitcoin page lists every call on Bitcoin from every channel, targets included, and the Ethereum and Solana pages do the same for those coins. Joseph Carlson’s targets on Alphabet and Amazon are on the GOOGL and AMZN pages, beside every other call on the two shares.
What base rate applies to a price target?
The record on each channel’s page sets its hit rate beside a base rate: how often the move a call named happened anyway over a window that long, from the instrument’s own price history. For a price target the base rate counts the direction of the move and ignores its size, so two targets on one coin on the same day, one 5% away and one 300% away, carry the same base rate. Some targets have none at all: only 3 of Joseph Carlson’s 23 target statements carry one at one year. For these reasons the article sorts targets by distance and prints counts. The sorting is this article’s reading of the record; the method scores every target by the same rule, whatever its distance.
How often are Wall Street analysts’ price targets met?
Most published research on price targets is about analysts at banks and brokers. Mark Bradshaw, Lawrence Brown and Kelly Huang studied the 12-month price targets that sell-side analysts issued over the ten years from 2000 to 2009, in a paper in the Review of Accounting Studies (2013). They found that 38% of those targets were met at the end of the 12 months, and 64% at some time during them. Those figures describe another group of forecasters, in another decade, measured by the paper’s own rules. This article does not set the channels beside them, and none of its counts is combined with theirs.
What about targets they read out from banks?
A target that a presenter reads out from someone else, such as a bank or a fund manager, is shown on its card with its source and is never counted for the channel. None of them is in this article’s counts: Coin Bureau read out 52 (from Standard Chartered, Tom Lee and Arthur Hayes and others), Joseph Carlson 6 (from Tom Lee, Gene Munster and people on cnbc and others), Andrei Jikh 13 (from ARK Invest, common theory and estimates and others) and Graham Stephan 27 (from Kathy Wood, Bank of America and Goldman Sachs and others). Callsight does not score those banks or funds either, because a target repeated on YouTube is not a reliable record of what the bank itself published. The channels’ own targets that the record holds out, such as one about a position the presenter already holds, are listed on each channel’s page with the reason on the card: 21 on Coin Bureau, 8 on Joseph Carlson, 3 on Andrei Jikh and 8 on Graham Stephan.
How was each target checked?
Each target is quoted word for word from the video and linked to the second it was said. The entry price is the first closing price after the video went public. A target counts as reached when the price touches it inside the window: the day’s high for a target above the price, the day’s low for one below, with a target set before a share split restated on the same basis. A target the price did not touch is Partly correct if the last close in the window had covered at least 50% of the distance, and Incorrect otherwise. A target is checked the same way however sure the speaker sounded, and its card shows how it was worded. The rules are the same for every channel, and the methodology page gives them in full. If you think a target was misread, the corrections page says how to report it.
How these examples were chosen
The cards were chosen on Oct 7, 2026 by a rule set out before the choosing: settled at the window this article reads them at, on coins and shares that readers know, from widely watched videos where there was a choice, recent where possible, and with Correct and Incorrect both among them. Calls with an open review were left out, and so were calls whose recorded reading could be argued: a statement with two outcomes in it, a deadline in the words that the record did not register, a cycle top read at one year, or captions that misspell the coin. Every target is listed on its channel’s page.
Figures are computed by code from the same record as the rest of the site. This article was drafted with the help of AI tools and reviewed by a person before publication. It is not investment advice.