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Joseph Carlson: SPY will rise

Said on Sep 26, 2022, at 21:13 in the video.

What was said
Joseph Carlson

@josephcarlsonshow

“so my thought was maybe inflation will go go down quicker than expected the FED will do a pivot and the stock market will go up”
Watch at 21:13Jeremy Siegel Just Destroyed The Fed | Joseph Carlson Ep. 274
PredictionSPYwill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years

Recorded as the stock market, a word for a group: this call is judged on SPY, the stand-in the method assigns to it.

What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Entry price (first close after the video)

$363.38

Sep 27, 2022

Price at close

$425.88

Sep 26, 2023

Total return, dividends included

+19.0%

SPY closed at $363.38 on Sep 27, 2022. On Sep 26, 2023 it closed at $425.88, a total return of +19.0% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

30 days

Correct

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

SPYWindow checked
$340$360$380$400$420$440$460$480Mar 2022Jul 2022Nov 2022Mar 2023Jul 2023Nov 2023Said on Sep 26, 2022
$350$400$450$500Mar 2022Oct 2022May 2023Nov 2023Said on Sep 26, 2022

SPY closing prices, adjusted for splits. The shaded span is the one-year window: it starts at the first close after the video went public and ends at the last close on or before one year after the day the video was published.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-DIR v4Correct$363.38Sep 27, 2022$382.02Oct 26, 2022+5.1%Total return, dividends included—
90 daysR-DIR v4Correct$363.38Sep 27, 2022$382.91Dec 23, 2022+5.9%Total return, dividends included—
180 daysR-DIR v4Correct$363.38Sep 27, 2022$395.75Mar 24, 2023+9.8%Total return, dividends included—
1 yearR-DIR v4Correct$363.38Sep 27, 2022$425.88Sep 26, 2023+19.0%Total return, dividends included—
3 yearsR-DIR v4Correct$363.38Sep 27, 2022$658.05Sep 25, 2025+88.7%Total return, dividends included—
5 yearsR-DIR v4Pending——Sep 24, 2027——
Why: 30 days

SPY closed at $363.38 on Sep 27, 2022. On Oct 26, 2022 it closed at $382.02, a total return of +5.1% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 90 days

SPY closed at $363.38 on Sep 27, 2022. On Dec 23, 2022 it closed at $382.91, a total return of +5.9% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 180 days

SPY closed at $363.38 on Sep 27, 2022. On Mar 24, 2023 it closed at $395.75, a total return of +9.8% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 1 year

SPY closed at $363.38 on Sep 27, 2022. On Sep 26, 2023 it closed at $425.88, a total return of +19.0% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 3 years

SPY closed at $363.38 on Sep 27, 2022. On Sep 25, 2025 it closed at $658.05, a total return of +88.7% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Sep 24, 2027.

What was said around it

investment decisions based on where inflation will be or where the interest rates will be I look at the data and I make predictions on it for instance my prediction was that inflation was going to hit its peak in March of 2022. so the core CPI hit 6.5 percent I came out with a video that very month saying that inflation has peaked I'm no Economist so why do I come to this conclusion simply because prices of things are either leveling out or starting to go down there's no big formula for it that's the only thing that I'm looking at so my thought was maybe inflation will go go down quicker than expected the FED will do a pivot and the stock market will go up but we have a compare and contrast here we have what Jeremy Siegel sing and the predictions that inflation will go down the FED is going to do a hard pivot and we have what people like Greg Jensen are saying that inflation is going to remain more stubborn than expected for longer than expected now I want to go on to explain why I'm not too concerned with what direction inflation goes or what direction the federal funds rate goes or even what direction the economy goes It's All About portfolio construction I tried to illustrate this

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

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Jun 25, 2026 · after 90 days

Incorrect so far · 90 days+5.6%