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Joseph Carlson: MSFT will rise

Said on Nov 20, 2023, at 24:15 in the video.

What was said
Joseph Carlson

@josephcarlsonshow

“I believe on the long-term future this will likely mean a better future for them than had Sam stayed directly at open AI because now he is part of the Microsoft team with literally unlimited resources”
Watch at 24:15I Just Spent $5,000 On This Undervalued Stock
PredictionMSFTwill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Entry price (first close after the video)

$373.07

Nov 21, 2023

Price at close

$417.79

Nov 19, 2024

Total return, dividends included

+12.6%

S&P 500 +32.0%

MSFT closed at $373.07 on Nov 21, 2023. On Nov 19, 2024 it closed at $417.79, a total return of +12.6% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +32.0%. The call was that it would rise.

30 days

Incorrect

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

MSFTWindow checked
$300$350$400$450$500May 2023Sep 2023Jan 2024May 2024Sep 2024Jan 2025Said on Nov 20, 2023
$300$350$400$450$500May 2023Dec 2023Jun 2024Jan 2025Said on Nov 20, 2023

MSFT closing prices, adjusted for splits. The shaded span is the one-year window: it starts at the first close after the video went public and ends at the last close on or before one year after the day the video was published.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-DIR v4Incorrect$373.07Nov 21, 2023$370.62Dec 20, 2023−0.7%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 +3.7%
90 daysR-DIR v4Correct$373.07Nov 21, 2023$404.06Feb 16, 2024+8.5%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 +10.6%
180 daysR-DIR v4Correct$373.07Nov 21, 2023$420.21May 17, 2024+13.0%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 +17.6%
1 yearR-DIR v4Correct$373.07Nov 21, 2023$417.79Nov 19, 2024+12.6%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 +32.0%
3 yearsR-DIR v4Pending——Nov 19, 2026——
5 yearsR-DIR v4Pending——Nov 17, 2028——
Why: 30 days

MSFT closed at $373.07 on Nov 21, 2023. On Dec 20, 2023 it closed at $370.62, a total return of −0.7% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +3.7%. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 90 days

MSFT closed at $373.07 on Nov 21, 2023. On Feb 16, 2024 it closed at $404.06, a total return of +8.5% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +10.6%. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 180 days

MSFT closed at $373.07 on Nov 21, 2023. On May 17, 2024 it closed at $420.21, a total return of +13.0% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +17.6%. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 1 year

MSFT closed at $373.07 on Nov 21, 2023. On Nov 19, 2024 it closed at $417.79, a total return of +12.6% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +32.0%. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 3 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Nov 19, 2026.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Nov 17, 2028.

What was said around it

going to obviously leave a dent in that company their development will be slowed but that's not too bad when the top talent moves from open AI over over to Microsoft directly now they own it directly and they'll have governance that's much better than the governance at openai so I think overall this has been an embarrassing weekend for the open AI board I think it's been far too drama filled than what a company should be going through but I think this is the best possible ending for Microsoft and I believe on the long-term future this will likely mean a better future for them than had Sam stayed directly at open AI because now he is part of the Microsoft team with literally unlimited resources SAA nadela has promised him that he'll be very well taken care of there now when I back up from this drama a little bit and I look at Microsoft overall as an investment this is one of the reasons why I think it's so important to look at the qualities of a company especially the CEO of the company the person leading it in this case Satya nadela I've been singing the Praises of Satya nadela for a long period of time he is an incredibly good CEO he's incredibly skilled he's incredibly talented competent

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Coin BureauMSFTwill fall

“it's safe to assume that Microsoft will trade lower today”

Nov 20, 2023 · after 1 year

Incorrect+11.3%

Joseph Carlsona call with no clear direction

“so for right now I'll consider it a hold and look for other opportunities”

Nov 8, 2023

Not scored

Joseph Carlsona call under review

“that means that the stock price in 2030 would be 662 dollars it would be a double from where it is today a double in seven years is about a ten percent return so that seems very reasonable”

Jun 27, 2023

Not scored

Joseph CarlsonMSFTwill outperform

“so if I'm looking at this specific battle I think Microsoft has one now this isn't to say that I'm bearish on Google I think the company has a lot going for them and I do think that they'll put up a very strong defense of their Market share”

Feb 8, 2023 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Joseph Carlsona call with no clear direction

“so when I look at the risk reward here I look at Microsoft as a company that can only benefit in this situation all they can do is grow a market share it's unlikely they're going to lose market share they're 3.4 percent”

Feb 8, 2023

Not scored

Joseph CarlsonMSFTwill rise

“I think that Microsoft is undervalued and I think right now basically all of big Tech is undervalued”

Jan 5, 2023

Not scored