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Does Joseph Carlson beat the market? His calls, checked
By Callsight · Published Oct 7, 2026 · Updated Oct 9, 2026
Figures as of Nov 3, 2026. They change as new windows settle.
As of Nov 3, 2026, the calls checked so far show no measurable difference from the S&P 500. Over one year, Joseph Carlson’s 47 price calls with a benchmark returned −5.1 pts against the S&P 500 on average, with a 95% range of −12.6 to +2.4 pts. Of his 70 calls decided at one year, 49 were Correct (70.0%); on the 68 that have a base rate, 69.1% were, against a base rate of 61.2%.
Did Joseph Carlson’s stock calls beat the S&P 500?
For each price call, take the stock’s total return from the first close after the video went public, subtract the return of the S&P 500 over the same days (the other way round for a call that a price would fall), and average the results.
At one year the average is −5.1 pts over 47 calls, and its 95% range, −12.6 to +2.4 pts, runs from below zero to above it. On these calls his picks cannot yet be told apart from the index. As more calls settle, the average could end up on either side; for now it shows neither that they did better nor that they did worse. A few large moves can pull an average of returns a long way, which is why the range is wide.
The table below gives the same average at every window, so that the answer does not rest on one chosen window.
| Window | Price calls with a benchmark | Average against the benchmark | 95% range |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 days | 46 | −1.1 pts | −2.9 to +0.8 pts |
| 90 days | 47 | +0.2 pts | −3.1 to +3.6 pts |
| 180 days | 48 | +1.2 pts | −3.1 to +5.5 pts |
| 1 year | 47 | −5.1 pts | −12.6 to +2.4 pts |
| 3 years | 28 | −6.7 pts | −28.8 to +15.5 pts |
| 5 years | 4 | Too few for an average | — |
How often did Joseph Carlson’s stock calls come true?
On stocks and funds at one year, 36 of his calls were Correct and 18 Incorrect, a hit rate of 66.7% on 54. Of his 84 counted price calls on stocks, 76 say the price will rise. A stock’s base rate is how often it moved the way he called over past spans of the same length, taken from its own price history. All 54 decided calls have one, and it averages 68.7%: a call like these comes true more often than not whoever makes it, so a high hit rate on them says little by itself. Set against the base rate on the same calls, his hit rate is 66.7% against 68.7%, a difference of −2.1 pts.
| Window | Correct | Incorrect | Pending | Hit rate | Base rate | Above the base rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 days | 25 | 31 | 0 | 44.6% (56) | 57.8% on 56 of 56 | −13.1 pts |
| 90 days | 30 | 26 | 0 | 53.6% (56) | 60.2% on 56 of 56 | −6.6 pts |
| 180 days | 35 | 23 | 0 | 60.3% (58) | 64.1% on 58 of 58 | −3.7 pts |
| 1 year | 36 | 18 | 6 | 66.7% (54) | 68.7% on 54 of 54 | −2.1 pts |
| 3 years | 24 | 8 | 34 | 75.0% (32) | 70.5% on 32 of 32 | +4.5 pts |
| 5 years | 2 | 2 | 70 | 50.0% (4) | 50.9% on 4 of 4 | −0.9 pts |
His record on every subject, at every window, is on Joseph Carlson’s page.
Which stocks did Joseph Carlson call most, and how did they do?
Each row counts his own calls on one stock or fund. The Counted column leaves out a position he already holds and anything else the record does not score. Results are at one year and given as counts, since a handful of calls on one stock is too few for a rate.
| Instrument | His calls | Counted | Correct, 1 year | Incorrect, 1 year | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOOGL | 18 | 14 | 12 | 0 | 2 |
| NFLX | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| AMZN | 12 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 |
| DIS | 10 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
| TXRH | 9 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 |
| AAPL | 11 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 |
| SBUX | 15 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| MSFT | 14 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
One of his calls on his most-called stock:
“And I believe this one will eventually get back up above $200 per share.”Entry price (first close after the video)
$161.96
Apr 25, 2025
Price at close
$344.40
Apr 24, 2026
Return
+112.6%
GOOGL was $161.96 on Apr 25, 2025. The target was $200.00. Between then and Apr 24, 2026 the high was $349.00, so the level was reached.
30 days
Incorrect
90 days
Partly correct
180 days
Correct
1 year
Correct
No deadline was stated; the headline is the one-year window.
And a price target on AMZN:
“I still believe over time investors will get the message and it will go from 210 to 220 to 240 up to 280 and beyond.”Entry price (first close after the video)
$211.65
Aug 4, 2025
Price at close
$277.42
Aug 4, 2026
Return
+31.1%
AMZN was $211.65 on Aug 4, 2025. The target was $280.00. Between then and Aug 4, 2026 the high was $287.20, so the level was reached.
30 days
Incorrect
90 days
Incorrect
180 days
Incorrect
1 year
Correct
No deadline was stated; the headline is the one-year window.
Calls on both stocks from every channel are on the GOOGL page and the AMZN page.
And one on ADBE that was Incorrect at one year:
“so I revisit Adobe today because I think it's an interesting one to look at I think that investors are more likely to make money today than lose money I believe the risk reward is to the upside but right now there's still some uncertainties in the stock and the fundamentals that keep me out of it”Entry price (first close after the video)
$387.26
Mar 21, 2025
Price at close
$248.15
Mar 20, 2026
Total return, dividends included
−35.9%
S&P 500 +16.3%
ADBE closed at $387.26 on Mar 21, 2025. On Mar 20, 2026 it closed at $248.15, a total return of −35.9% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +16.3%. The call was that it would rise.
30 days
Incorrect
90 days
Incorrect
180 days
Incorrect
1 year
Incorrect
No deadline was stated; the headline is the one-year window.
The method scores a statement about a business only when it says what the price will do, and the step that reads the videos sometimes gets this wrong. If you think one of these calls was misread, use the correction form.
Is this Joseph Carlson’s portfolio performance?
No. Callsight scores what he says on air about where a price is going. 38 of his calls are about a position he said he already holds; those are listed and never scored. In all, 97 of his own calls are listed but not scored, each with the reason on its card, and the 19 forecasts he read out from someone else are shown with their source and never counted for or against him.
What did Joseph Carlson say about recessions and inflation?
Most of his counted calls are about stocks, but 27 are about the economy. Of those decided at one year, as the record counts them, 13 were Correct and 3 Incorrect, a hit rate of 81.3% on 16; on the 14 with a base rate, 78.6% were Correct, against a base rate of 32.0%. A sample of 16 says little on its own. At one year, his calls on a recession stand at 0 Correct and 3 Incorrect, those on inflation at 8 Correct and 0 Incorrect, and those on the Fed’s rate at 5 Correct, 1 Incorrect and 1 Not verifiable. A recession call is checked against the NBER’s recession dates, and a window with none in it settles 15 months after it closes, since the NBER can take that long to date one. Every recession call from every channel is on the recession page.
How is a stock call checked?
Each call is quoted word for word from the video and linked to the second it was said. A stock call is measured from the first closing price after the video went public, which is the same day’s close when the video went up before the market closed. It is measured as a total return with dividends, against the S&P 500 (SPY) over the same days, at 6 windows from 30 days to 5 years, and every window is shown. A call that a price will rise or fall is Within band when the move is smaller than 0.5% either way. A price target is Correct when the price touches it inside the window, and Partly correct when the last close had covered at least 50% of the distance. A call that one stock will do better than another, or than the market, is not judged yet: 18 of his calls are comparisons of that kind, listed as Not verifiable and left out of every rate above. The rules are the same for every channel, and the methodology page gives them in full. Two other articles apply them to Graham Stephan’s calls on housing and Andrei Jikh’s Bitcoin calls, and a third looks at how often price targets set on YouTube are hit, his among them.
How these examples were chosen
The calls shown here follow a fixed rule: settled at one year, from widely watched videos, on well-known instruments, recent where possible, and with at least one Correct and one Incorrect. A call whose recorded reading is being checked again is left out. Every call is listed on the channel's page.
Figures are computed by code from the same record as the rest of the site. This article was drafted with the help of AI tools and reviewed by a person before publication. It is not investment advice.