Joseph Carlson: AMZN will rise

Said on Jan 14, 2026, at 16:31 in the video.

What was said
Joseph Carlson

@josephcarlsonshow

“My thesis with Amazon is that AWS will continue to accelerate. I believe it will grow 18 to 19% over the next year and that accelerated growth will continue to push the stock higher.”
Watch at 16:314 Compounding Machines To Buy Now
PredictionAMZNwill riseby Dec 31, 2027
What happenedafter 180 days
Correct so far · 180 days

Entry price (first close after the video)

$238.18

Jan 15, 2026

Price at close

$247.31

Jul 13, 2026

Total return, dividends included

+3.8%

S&P 500 +8.8%

AMZN closed at $238.18 on Jan 15, 2026. On Jul 13, 2026 it closed at $247.31, a total return of +3.8% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +8.8%. The call was that it would rise.

30 days

Incorrect

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Pending

The window it was checked over

AMZNWindow checked
$180$200$220$240$260$280$300Jul 2025Nov 2025Feb 2026Jun 2026Sep 2026Jan 2027Said on Jan 14, 2026
$150$200$250$300Jul 2025Jan 2026Jul 2026Jan 2027Said on Jan 14, 2026

AMZN closing prices, adjusted for splits. The shaded span is the one-year window: it starts at the first close after the video went public and ends at the last close on or before one year after the day the video was published.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-DIR v4Incorrect$238.18Jan 15, 2026$198.79Feb 13, 2026−16.5%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 −1.5%
90 daysR-DIR v4Correct$238.18Jan 15, 2026$249.02Apr 14, 2026+4.6%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 +0.6%
180 daysR-DIR v4Correct$238.18Jan 15, 2026$247.31Jul 13, 2026+3.8%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 +8.8%
1 yearR-DIR v4Pending——Jan 14, 2027——
3 yearsR-DIR v4Pending——Jan 12, 2029——
5 yearsR-DIR v4Pending——Jan 13, 2031——
Stated deadlineR-DIR v4Pending——Dec 31, 2027——
Why: 30 days

AMZN closed at $238.18 on Jan 15, 2026. On Feb 13, 2026 it closed at $198.79, a total return of −16.5% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was −1.5%. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 90 days

AMZN closed at $238.18 on Jan 15, 2026. On Apr 14, 2026 it closed at $249.02, a total return of +4.6% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +0.6%. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 180 days

AMZN closed at $238.18 on Jan 15, 2026. On Jul 13, 2026 it closed at $247.31, a total return of +3.8% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +8.8%. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 1 year

Not yet resolved. The window closes Jan 14, 2027.

Why: 3 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Jan 12, 2029.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Jan 13, 2031.

Why: Stated deadline

Not yet resolved. The window closes Dec 31, 2027.

What was said around it

list for some time and it's also a large holding in the portfolio. There's a lot of different reasons to buy Amazon, including their growing advertising business, their mix shift of higher quality revenues over time. You can see that Amazon continually is growing in their thirdparty seller services, their advertising subscriptions, and AWS. But out of all of these reasons, I want to highlight two that I believe are the single biggest reasons to own Amazon today. The first one's Amazon Web Services, AWS. My thesis with Amazon is that AWS will continue to accelerate. I believe it will grow 18 to 19% over the next year and that accelerated growth will continue to push the stock higher. When we look at the customer commitments to AWS, those are growing faster than their current growth rate. We have 22% growth in customer commitments, which means that more people are signing up and signing contracts to use AWS in the future. The operating margins of it are also very high, 35%. This is much higher than where Google's are or even Azures. This is incredibly high margins and they should go higher. But the other reason that I highlight Amazon as a buy today is because I think overall when we

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