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Khung thời gian được kiểm chứng

Chỉ báo suy thoái theo mốc của NBER: Ngân hàng Dự trữ Liên bang St. Louis, qua FRED, số liệu công bố lần đầu. Vùng tô là khung thời gian được kiểm chứng; vùng xám là các giai đoạn suy thoái.

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things Rosy during a big election year you'll recall that this could cause a Resurgence in inflation and would also increase existing debt loads and this relates to the fourth problem and that's a decline in productivity which we also touched on earlier as a not so fun fact GDP per capita is declining in many Western countries particularly Canada given these risks the bis sees two possible scenarios that could drag down the global economy the first is a Resurgence in inflation and the second is a hard Landing AKA a recession and as another not so fun fact a spike in commodity prices has historically been followed by a recession this means we could get both now the second part of the report is about monetary policy again but this time the focus is on the future rather than the past funny enough the authors start by recounting how the 21st century has so far featured A Series of Unfortunate Events including the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 pandemic they note that the pandemic effectively marked the bottom for the decline in interest rates that began after 2008 and could have marked the top for the size of central bank balance sheets for those unaware central banks will buy government

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