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Coin Bureau: SPY will fall

Said on Sep 4, 2022, at 12:03 in the video.

What was said
Coin Bureau

@coinbureau

“that last word is key because it suggests that the stock market is headed lower and all the bearish macro factors certainly suggest this is the case”
Watch at 12:03Retail CRYPTO BANS Are Here! What It Could Mean For YOU!
PredictionSPYwill fallChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years

Recorded as stock market, a word for a group: this call is judged on SPY, the stand-in the method assigns to it.

What happenedafter 1 year
Incorrect

Entry price (first close after the video)

$390.76

Sep 6, 2022

Price at close

$451.19

Sep 1, 2023

Total return, dividends included

+17.4%

SPY closed at $390.76 on Sep 6, 2022. On Sep 1, 2023 it closed at $451.19, a total return of +17.4% (dividends included). The call was that it would fall.

30 days

Correct

90 days

Incorrect

180 days

Incorrect

1 year

Incorrect

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

SPYWindow checked
$340$360$380$400$420$440$460$480Mar 2022Jul 2022Nov 2022Mar 2023Jul 2023Oct 2023Said on Sep 4, 2022
$350$400$450$500Mar 2022Sep 2022Apr 2023Oct 2023Said on Sep 4, 2022

SPY closing prices, adjusted for splits. The shaded span is the one-year window: it starts at the first close after the video went public and ends at the last close on or before one year after the day the video was published.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-DIR v4Correct$390.76Sep 6, 2022$377.97Oct 4, 2022−2.9%Total return, dividends included—
90 daysR-DIR v4Incorrect$390.76Sep 6, 2022$406.91Dec 2, 2022+4.6%Total return, dividends included—
180 daysR-DIR v4Incorrect$390.76Sep 6, 2022$404.19Mar 3, 2023+4.3%Total return, dividends included—
1 yearR-DIR v4Incorrect$390.76Sep 6, 2022$451.19Sep 1, 2023+17.4%Total return, dividends included—
3 yearsR-DIR v4Incorrect$390.76Sep 6, 2022$643.74Sep 3, 2025+71.9%Total return, dividends included—
5 yearsR-DIR v4Pending——Sep 3, 2027——
Why: 30 days

SPY closed at $390.76 on Sep 6, 2022. On Oct 4, 2022 it closed at $377.97, a total return of −2.9% (dividends included). The call was that it would fall.

Why: 90 days

SPY closed at $390.76 on Sep 6, 2022. On Dec 2, 2022 it closed at $406.91, a total return of +4.6% (dividends included). The call was that it would fall.

Why: 180 days

SPY closed at $390.76 on Sep 6, 2022. On Mar 3, 2023 it closed at $404.19, a total return of +4.3% (dividends included). The call was that it would fall.

Why: 1 year

SPY closed at $390.76 on Sep 6, 2022. On Sep 1, 2023 it closed at $451.19, a total return of +17.4% (dividends included). The call was that it would fall.

Why: 3 years

SPY closed at $390.76 on Sep 6, 2022. On Sep 3, 2025 it closed at $643.74, a total return of +71.9% (dividends included). The call was that it would fall.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Sep 3, 2027.

What was said around it

trading platform i reckon it's reasonable to assume that it's a similar story on others especially since another analysis by the wall street journal recently found that retail investors continue to pour record amounts of money into the market this is believed to be because retail investors can see that the markets quickly recovered after all recent crashes and many of them are still in the green overall due to the appreciation of house prices and other assets they own in other words retail investors haven't capitulated yet that last word is key because it suggests that the stock market is headed lower and all the bearish macro factors certainly suggest this is the case so riddle me this what happens when the stock market crashes by another 20 maybe even 30 percent while all other assets where the middle class store their wealth like houses and cars start to crash too that's right you're going to have lots of retail investors demanding regulation and retribution if you need any evidence of this order of events look no further than the crypto market since the crypto market crash in may we've seen no shortage of lawsuits alleging that certain cryptocurrencies are securities that certain exchanges

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

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Jun 25, 2026 · after 90 days

Incorrect so far · 90 days+5.6%