Said on Jun 29, 2025, at 21:02 in the video.
“the central expectation is that mortgage rates are going to remain higher for longer the
days of 3% are gone”Not verifiable: no direction stated. Neither a level nor a direction
30 days
Not verifiable
90 days
Not verifiable
180 days
Not verifiable
1 year
Not verifiable
30-year fixed mortgage rate: Freddie Mac PMMS via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.
| Window | Result | At the start | At the end | Change | Benchmark |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4 | Not verifiable | — | — | — | — |
| 90 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4 | Not verifiable | — | — | — | — |
| 180 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4 | Not verifiable | — | — | — | — |
| 1 yearR-MACRO-LEVEL v4 | Not verifiable | — | — | — | — |
| 3 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4 | Pending | — | —Jun 28, 2028 | — | — |
| 5 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4 | Pending | — | —Jun 28, 2030 | — | — |
Not verifiable: no direction stated. Neither a level nor a direction
Not verifiable: no direction stated. Neither a level nor a direction
Not verifiable: no direction stated. Neither a level nor a direction
Not verifiable: no direction stated. Neither a level nor a direction
Not yet resolved. The window closes Jun 28, 2028.
Not yet resolved. The window closes Jun 28, 2030.
market has been distorted by decades of policy decisions that have prioritized investors over homeowners policies like negative gearing and capital gains discounts actively incentivized real estate investment over home ownership costing the government billions in tax revenue this has funneled investment into existing properties driving up prices without creating new supply in a prime example of how policy can be the primary driver of a national housing crisis so where does this leave us and uh what does the future hold well the central expectation is that mortgage rates are going to remain higher for longer the days of 3% are gone our main takeaway is not that a bonfire is about to start but that the new normal is a world where rates stay elevated and the affordability crisis slowly rugs most of us for generations home ownership has been the main road to building middle class wealth and financial security and a key pathway to accessing credit but now younger people are systematically locked out of the process with serious implications for the already vast gap in generational wealth and so perhaps before you know it housing might just be another subscription
What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.
Graham StephanMortgage rateswill rise
“your payments are probably going higher.”
Aug 10, 2026 · after 30 days
Graham Stephana call under review
“starting now, mortgage rates have already begun going higher.”
Aug 10, 2026
Graham Stephana call with no clear direction
“But, don't expect this to happen, because as we've all seen, rates have stayed significantly higher for much longer than people have expected.”
Jul 22, 2026
Graham Stephana call under review
“I don't think any of these are going to have a lasting effect whatsoever.”
Mar 18, 2026
Graham StephanMortgage rateswill fall
“In the near term, a flight to safety of the dollar could actually push Treasury yields down and actually reduce mortgage rates.”
Mar 2, 2026 · after 180 days
Graham Stephana call under review
“mortgage rates coming down, which should boost the short-term value of my properties even further,”
Jan 13, 2026
