Graham Stephan: Mortgage rates will fall

Said on Mar 2, 2026, at 11:22 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“In the near term, a flight to safety of the dollar could actually push Treasury yields down and actually reduce mortgage rates.”
Watch at 11:22BREAKING: OIL PRODUCTION JUST SHUT DOWN - What It Means For Your Money!
PredictionMortgage rateswill fallChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 180 days
Incorrect so far · 180 days

Reading when said

5.98%

Mar 2, 2026

Reading at close

6.66%

Aug 29, 2026

Change

+0.68 pp

Mortgage rates stood at 5.98% at the start of the window and 6.66% at Aug 29, 2026, a change of +0.68 pp (MORTGAGE30US, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

30 days

Within band

90 days

Incorrect

180 days

Incorrect

1 year

Pending

The window it was checked over

Mortgage ratesWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
5.5%6%6.5%7%7.5%8%202320232024202520262027Said on Mar 2, 2026
5.5%6%6.5%7%7.5%8%2023202420252027Said on Mar 2, 2026

30-year fixed mortgage rate: Freddie Mac PMMS via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Within band5.98%6.38%Apr 1, 2026+0.40 pp—
90 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Incorrect5.98%6.53%May 31, 2026+0.55 pp—
180 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Incorrect5.98%6.66%Aug 29, 2026+0.68 pp—
1 yearR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Pending——Mar 2, 2027——
3 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Pending——Mar 1, 2029——
5 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Pending——Mar 1, 2031——
Why: 30 days

Mortgage rates stood at 5.98% at the start of the window and 6.38% at Apr 1, 2026, a change of +0.40 pp (MORTGAGE30US, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 90 days

Mortgage rates stood at 5.98% at the start of the window and 6.53% at May 31, 2026, a change of +0.55 pp (MORTGAGE30US, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 180 days

Mortgage rates stood at 5.98% at the start of the window and 6.66% at Aug 29, 2026, a change of +0.68 pp (MORTGAGE30US, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 1 year

Not yet resolved. The window closes Mar 2, 2027.

Why: 3 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Mar 1, 2029.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Mar 1, 2031.

What was said around it

about it right now, we got to talk about first the US dollar. Historically, believe it or not, the dollar actually tends to get a lot stronger during times of economic crisis because it's seen as the world's reserve currency and a flight to safety where a lot of people put their money in addition to gold. However, tensions like this also create a lot of money printing to the point where long-term, the dollar's expected to continue to weaken. Second, we also have mortgage rates. See, here's where things get a bit counterintuitive. In the near term, a flight to safety of the dollar could actually push Treasury yields down and actually reduce mortgage rates. Like we already saw rates dip below 6% in February for this exact reason. But, like I said earlier, if this conflict leads to sustained inflation, the Federal Reserve is not able to cut rates. And, once everything balances out, we could see higher interest rates for longer, leading to third, higher household budgets. The bottom line for the average American family is this. In these scenarios, financially, low-and-middle-income households get hit the hardest because energy makes up a bigger percentage of their income. Like, higher

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