Graham Stephan: Mortgage rates will rise

Said on Mar 23, 2022, at 5:08 in the video.

What was saidMar 23, 2022

@grahamstephan

“it's no surprise that rates will probably go a lot higher as the Federal Reserve continually raises rates for the foreseeable future”

Watch at 5:08It’s Over: Why The Housing Market Is Screwed

PredictionMortgage rateswill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years

What happenedafter 1 year

Correct

Reading when said

4.16%

Mar 23, 2022

Reading at close

6.42%

Mar 23, 2023

Change

+2.26 pp

Mortgage rates stood at 4.16% at the start of the window and 6.42% at Mar 23, 2023, a change of +2.26 pp (MORTGAGE30US, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

30 days

Correct

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidence Report a problem

The window it was checked over

Mortgage ratesWindow checkedRecession (NBER)

30-year fixed mortgage rate: Freddie Mac PMMS via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked

Result at every window
Window	Result	At the start	At the end	Change	Benchmark
30 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4	Correct	4.16%	5.11%Apr 22, 2022	+0.95 pp	—
90 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4	Correct	4.16%	5.78%Jun 21, 2022	+1.62 pp	—
180 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4	Correct	4.16%	6.02%Sep 19, 2022	+1.86 pp	—
1 yearR-MACRO-LEVEL v4	Correct	4.16%	6.42%Mar 23, 2023	+2.26 pp	—
3 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4	Correct	4.16%	6.67%Mar 22, 2025	+2.51 pp	—
5 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4	Pending	—	—Mar 22, 2027	—	—

Why: 30 days

Mortgage rates stood at 4.16% at the start of the window and 5.11% at Apr 22, 2022, a change of +0.95 pp (MORTGAGE30US, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 90 days

Mortgage rates stood at 4.16% at the start of the window and 5.78% at Jun 21, 2022, a change of +1.62 pp (MORTGAGE30US, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 180 days

Mortgage rates stood at 4.16% at the start of the window and 6.02% at Sep 19, 2022, a change of +1.86 pp (MORTGAGE30US, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 1 year

Why: 3 years

Mortgage rates stood at 4.16% at the start of the window and 6.67% at Mar 22, 2025, a change of +2.51 pp (MORTGAGE30US, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Mar 22, 2027.

What was said around it

result they have less interest in purchasing pun intended Rising rates also have a direct correlation with home affordability with a median cost of monthly mortgage payments having increased by more than 400 or 27 percent over the last seven months although as far as what the experts believe we might see over the next year here are the five predictions that I think are worth discussing first mortgage rates will rise as of today mortgage rates have increased from 3.2 to 4.4 percent which is now the same level that we saw back in 2019. it's no surprise that rates will probably go a lot higher as the Federal Reserve continually raises rates for the foreseeable future meaning either demand will begin to subside or buyers will rush to lock in a low rate while they still can second expect less competition according to the National associational Realtors as they explained the combination of rising interest rates and Rising house prices will push some would-be home buyers out of the market which may result in reduced competition after the summer buying season is over that's at the same time as third home price appreciation will slow now on the surface estimates for the 2022 housing market are well

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