Graham Stephan: Mortgage rates will rise to 5%

Said on Mar 21, 2018, at 8:16 in the video.

What was saidMar 21, 2018

@grahamstephan

“I personally believe interest rates will probably end up around 5% at the end of the year at which point it's gonna be a lot harder to justify buying some of these properties”

Watch at 8:1627 Years Old: Should I buy a House or a Lamborghini?

PredictionMortgage rateswill rise to 5%by Dec 31, 2018

What happenedafter 1 year

Incorrect

Reading when said

4.45%

Mar 21, 2018

Reading at close

4.28%

Mar 21, 2019

Change

−0.17 pp

The call was for mortgage rates to reach 5.0% between Mar 21, 2018 and Mar 21, 2019. Its high over that window was 4.9% (MORTGAGE30US, first releases), so the level was not reached.

30 days

Incorrect

90 days

Incorrect

180 days

Incorrect

1 year

Incorrect

Details and evidence Report a problem

The window it was checked over

Mortgage ratesWindow checkedTarget namedRecession (NBER)

30-year fixed mortgage rate: Freddie Mac PMMS via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked

Result at every window
Window	Result	At the start	At the end	Change	Benchmark
30 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4	Incorrect	4.45%	4.47%Apr 20, 2018	+0.02 pp	—
90 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4	Incorrect	4.45%	4.62%Jun 19, 2018	+0.17 pp	—
180 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4	Incorrect	4.45%	4.6%Sep 17, 2018	+0.15 pp	—
1 yearR-MACRO-LEVEL v4	Incorrect	4.45%	4.28%Mar 21, 2019	−0.17 pp	—
3 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4	Incorrect	4.45%	3.09%Mar 20, 2021	−1.36 pp	—
5 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4	Correct	4.45%	6.6%Mar 20, 2023	+2.15 pp	—
Stated deadlineR-MACRO-LEVEL v4	Incorrect	4.45%	4.55%Dec 31, 2018	+0.10 pp	—

Why: 30 days

The call was for mortgage rates to reach 5.0% between Mar 21, 2018 and Apr 20, 2018. Its high over that window was 4.5% (MORTGAGE30US, first releases), so the level was not reached.

Why: 90 days

The call was for mortgage rates to reach 5.0% between Mar 21, 2018 and Jun 19, 2018. Its high over that window was 4.7% (MORTGAGE30US, first releases), so the level was not reached.

Why: 180 days

The call was for mortgage rates to reach 5.0% between Mar 21, 2018 and Sep 17, 2018. Its high over that window was 4.7% (MORTGAGE30US, first releases), so the level was not reached.

Why: 1 year

The call was for mortgage rates to reach 5.0% between Mar 21, 2018 and Mar 21, 2019. Its high over that window was 4.9% (MORTGAGE30US, first releases), so the level was not reached.

Why: 3 years

The call was for mortgage rates to reach 5.0% between Mar 21, 2018 and Mar 20, 2021. Its high over that window was 4.9% (MORTGAGE30US, first releases), so the level was not reached.

Why: 5 years

The call was for mortgage rates to reach 5.0% between Mar 21, 2018 and Mar 20, 2023. Its high over that window was 7.1% (MORTGAGE30US, first releases), so the level was reached.

Why: Stated deadline

The call was for mortgage rates to reach 5.0% between Mar 21, 2018 and Dec 31, 2018. Its high over that window was 4.9% (MORTGAGE30US, first releases), so the level was not reached.

What was said around it

straightforward if I ended up doing something like that I'd probably put down between sixty and eighty thousand dollars and then just finance the rest of it but like I said I overanalyze everything and these are my thoughts if I were to invest the full purchase price of the car as a downpayment in real estate instead so for the way I see it interest rates are still pretty low it's basically teetering on the point where I feel like I should be taking advantage of these low prices before they get much higher now I personally believe interest rates will probably end up around 5% at the end of the year at which point it's gonna be a lot harder to justify buying some of these properties when my intention is really to hold it for 30 years so the difference over 30 years between four and a half and five percent can actually add up to something pretty significant from locking in a year from now than doing it today now one of the problems here and this is my own fault is that I like investing in Los Angeles it's the market I know the best it's the market I feel like has a ton of potential in terms of appreciation but it's also a market where it's a needle in haystack especially today define something

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.