Graham Stephan, dẫn lời nguồn khác: Suy thoái sẽ tăng

Khung thời gian được kiểm chứng

Chỉ báo suy thoái theo mốc của NBER: Ngân hàng Dự trữ Liên bang St. Louis, qua FRED, số liệu công bố lần đầu. Vùng tô là khung thời gian được kiểm chứng; vùng xám là các giai đoạn suy thoái.

Ngữ cảnh xung quanh

displaced white-collar workers don't just disappear. Instead, the Salesforce manager making $180,000 loses his job and starts working for Uber at $45,000. From there, multiply that by hundreds of thousands of workers, and all of a sudden, you have a flood of highly qualified people entering the jobs market, competing with one another, pushing down wages for everybody. Like keep in mind, the top 10% of earners drive more than 50% of all consumer spending in the US. So, when those people lose their jobs or see a 50% haircut in income, spending drops dramatically. That's why in Q2 of 2027 in this scenario, we are in a full-blown recession. And this means we'll see phase four, a private credit collapse. Now, for anyone who's not been following this, more than two and a half trillion dollars have been invested in software priced at valuations that assume that revenue never goes down. Like take Zendesk as an example. It was taken private for 10.2 billion dollars backed by a 5 billion dollar loan. However, once AI started replicating customer service without any humans, their entire business model started becoming obsolete. However, there is a bit of a twist. These companies didn't raise money from

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