Coin Bureau: Mortgage rates will rise

Said on Apr 10, 2025, at 15:34 in the video.

What was saidApr 10, 2025

@coinbureau

“Taken together this all suggests that long-term interest rates will continue rising in the coming years along with mortgage rates”

Watch at 15:34Mortgage Rates Set to Soar? Inside the Fannie & Freddie Shakeup

PredictionMortgage rateswill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years

What happenedafter 1 year

Within band

Reading when said

6.62%

Apr 10, 2025

Reading at close

6.37%

Apr 10, 2026

Change

−0.25 pp

Mortgage rates stood at 6.62% at the start of the window and 6.37% at Apr 10, 2026, a change of −0.25 pp (MORTGAGE30US, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

30 days

Within band

90 days

Within band

180 days

Within band

1 year

Within band

Details and evidence Report a problem

The window it was checked over

Mortgage ratesWindow checkedRecession (NBER)

30-year fixed mortgage rate: Freddie Mac PMMS via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked

Result at every window
Window	Result	At the start	At the end	Change	Benchmark
30 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4	Within band	6.62%	6.76%May 10, 2025	+0.14 pp	—
90 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4	Within band	6.62%	6.67%Jul 9, 2025	+0.05 pp	—
180 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4	Within band	6.62%	6.34%Oct 7, 2025	−0.28 pp	—
1 yearR-MACRO-LEVEL v4	Within band	6.62%	6.37%Apr 10, 2026	−0.25 pp	—
3 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4	Pending	—	—Apr 9, 2028	—	—
5 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4	Pending	—	—Apr 9, 2030	—	—

Why: 30 days

Mortgage rates stood at 6.62% at the start of the window and 6.76% at May 10, 2025, a change of +0.14 pp (MORTGAGE30US, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 90 days

Mortgage rates stood at 6.62% at the start of the window and 6.67% at Jul 9, 2025, a change of +0.05 pp (MORTGAGE30US, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 180 days

Mortgage rates stood at 6.62% at the start of the window and 6.34% at Oct 7, 2025, a change of −0.28 pp (MORTGAGE30US, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 1 year

Why: 3 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Apr 9, 2028.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Apr 9, 2030.

What was said around it

means higher interest rates on US mortgages Well uh let's just say it's not looking too good there The Fed seems determined to keep interest rates higher for longer The US economy has been weakening but not enough that it's recessionary Yet inflation is expected to rise because of things like tariffs and the 10-year bond issuance will increase after the debt ceiling is raised Notably the 10-year bond issuance will increase even more when the US government stops borrowing much more money using the short-term bonds Taken together this all suggests that long-term interest rates will continue rising in the coming years along with mortgage rates If they do then the effects on the housing market will be almost identical to the privatization of Fanny and Freddy Lower housing prices but also more expensive mortgages Again in the short term this could mean housing prices staying high while mortgage rates rise which is almost exactly what we've been seeing in recent months It's only in the longer term that housing prices would start to come down which will be good for the 35% of Americans who don't own homes already uh the remaining 65% will see the values of

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