Coin Bureau, dẫn lời CME FedWatch: Lãi suất chính sách Fed — không nêu hướng

Khung thời gian được kiểm chứng

Cận trên của biên độ lãi suất mục tiêu quỹ liên bang (Fed funds): Hội đồng Thống đốc Cục Dự trữ Liên bang Mỹ, qua FRED, số liệu công bố lần đầu. Vùng tô là khung thời gian được kiểm chứng; vùng xám là các giai đoạn suy thoái.

Ngữ cảnh xung quanh

Robin Hood. He has called the current $6.7 trillion Fed balance sheet bloated. He has demanded what he calls regime change at the Federal Reserve. So, this is, on the macro side, a genuine hawk. Now, here is the paradox that should have every holder paying attention. The man personally invested across 30 crypto positions is the same man whose monetary policy philosophy is the most aggressively tight money posture we've seen on a Fed chair shortlist in over a decade. The current Fed funds rate sits at 3.64%. CME FedWatch is now pricing a roughly 84 to 95% probability that rates stay on hold through the end of 2026. There is now a non-trivial probability of a rate hike in early 2027. War documented policy preference is shrinking the balance sheet aggressively while potentially cutting short rates to offset what analysts at ABM Amro have described as the QT for cuts trade. That is a financially neutral mix on paper. In practice, it would push long and treasury yields higher while easing the short end. The 10-year is already at 4.45%. Bitcoin's relationship with that rate since the launch of the spot ETFs has become extraordinarily direct. BlackRock's IBIT alone now holds 63.5 billion dollars

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