Graham Stephan: BTC will rise

Said on Feb 3, 2025, at 18:45 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“longterm I am bullish for Bitcoin I do think the ETFs make it incredibly easy to buy or sell without worrying about self- custody and I have a feeling over time more people are going to begin diversifying into it causing the price to go higher”
Watch at 18:45It Started: How To Get Rich In The 2025 Market Reversal
PredictionBTCwill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Incorrect

Entry price (first close after the video)

$101,329

Feb 3, 2025

Price at close

$75,770

Feb 3, 2026

Return

−25.2%

S&P 500 +16.7%

BTC closed at $101,329 on Feb 3, 2025. On Feb 3, 2026 it closed at $75,770, a return of −25.2%. SPY returned +16.7% over the same window. The call was that it would rise.

30 days

Incorrect

90 days

Incorrect

180 days

Correct

1 year

Incorrect

The window it was checked over

BTCWindow checked
$40,000$60,000$80,000$100,000$120,000$140,000Aug 2024Dec 2024Apr 2025Aug 2025Dec 2025Apr 2026Said on Feb 3, 2025
$40,000$60,000$80,000$100,000$120,000$140,000Aug 2024Feb 2025Sep 2025Apr 2026Said on Feb 3, 2025

BTC closing prices, adjusted for splits. The shaded span is the one-year window: it starts at the first close after the video went public and ends at the last close on or before one year after the day the video was published.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-DIR v4Incorrect$101,329Feb 3, 2025$90,606Mar 5, 2025−10.6%S&P 500 −2.5%
90 daysR-DIR v4Incorrect$101,329Feb 3, 2025$94,278May 4, 2025−7.0%S&P 500 −4.9%
180 daysR-DIR v4Correct$101,329Feb 3, 2025$112,546Aug 2, 2025+11.1%S&P 500 +4.6%
1 yearR-DIR v4Incorrect$101,329Feb 3, 2025$75,770Feb 3, 2026−25.2%S&P 500 +16.7%
3 yearsR-DIR v4Pending——Feb 3, 2028——
5 yearsR-DIR v4Pending——Feb 2, 2030——
Why: 30 days

BTC closed at $101,329 on Feb 3, 2025. On Mar 5, 2025 it closed at $90,606, a return of −10.6%. SPY returned −2.5% over the same window. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 90 days

BTC closed at $101,329 on Feb 3, 2025. On May 4, 2025 it closed at $94,278, a return of −7.0%. SPY returned −4.9% over the same window. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 180 days

BTC closed at $101,329 on Feb 3, 2025. On Aug 2, 2025 it closed at $112,546, a return of +11.1%. SPY returned +4.6% over the same window. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 1 year

BTC closed at $101,329 on Feb 3, 2025. On Feb 3, 2026 it closed at $75,770, a return of −25.2%. SPY returned +16.7% over the same window. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 3 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Feb 3, 2028.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Feb 2, 2030.

What was said around it

from nexo with a mouth watering price of $250,000 personally though as far as what I'm doing ever since the big coin ETFs have come out a little over a year ago I've just been dollar cost averaging on a regular basis and holding it through the ups and downs so far I'm proud to announce that buying the ETF has worked really well for me but it's also a part of my portfolio that I'm willing to write off entirely just in the event that everything goes to sh but all seriousness longterm I am bullish for Bitcoin I do think the ETFs make it incredibly easy to buy or sell without worrying about self- custody and I have a feeling over time more people are going to begin diversifying into it causing the price to go higher but then again I could be totally wrong and it'll be interesting to look back at this 10 years from now and see just how well this is aged that's why for 2025 my investing blueprint is pretty simple one I'm setting aside a specific amount of money every single month to invest and I'm sticking with it number two this is Diversified across 75% S&P 500 15% International equities and then 10% within a Bitcoin ETF three I don't intend on selling anything for probably the next 20

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