Joseph Carlson: NFLX will rise

Said on Oct 13, 2025, at 14:42 in the video.

What was said
Joseph Carlson

@josephcarlsonshow

“The stock will be higher in the next 5 years, substantially higher.”
Watch at 14:42Top Five AI Stocks I'm Buying Now
PredictionNFLXwill riseby Oct 12, 2030
What happenedafter 1 year
Incorrect

Entry price (first close after the video)

$121.90

Oct 13, 2025

Price at close

$70.46

Oct 13, 2026

Total return, dividends included

−42.2%

S&P 500 +18.6%

NFLX closed at $121.90 on Oct 13, 2025. On Oct 13, 2026 it closed at $70.46, a total return of −42.2% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +18.6%. The call was that it would rise.

30 days

Incorrect

90 days

Incorrect

180 days

Incorrect

1 year

Incorrect

The window it was checked over

NFLXWindow checked
$40$60$80$100$120$140Apr 2025Aug 2025Nov 2025Mar 2026Jul 2026Oct 2026Said on Oct 13, 2025
$40$60$80$100$120$140Apr 2025Oct 2025Apr 2026Oct 2026Said on Oct 13, 2025

NFLX closing prices, adjusted for splits. The shaded span is the one-year window: it starts at the first close after the video went public and ends at the last close on or before one year after the day the video was published.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-DIR v4Incorrect$121.90Oct 13, 2025$115.75Nov 12, 2025−5.0%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 +3.1%
90 daysR-DIR v4Incorrect$121.90Oct 13, 2025$89.46Jan 9, 2026−26.6%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 +5.0%
180 daysR-DIR v4Incorrect$121.90Oct 13, 2025$103.01Apr 10, 2026−15.5%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 +3.1%
1 yearR-DIR v4Incorrect$121.90Oct 13, 2025$70.46Oct 13, 2026−42.2%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 +18.6%
3 yearsR-DIR v4Pending——Oct 12, 2028——
5 yearsR-DIR v4Pending——Oct 11, 2030——
Stated deadlineR-DIR v4Pending——Oct 11, 2030——
Why: 30 days

NFLX closed at $121.90 on Oct 13, 2025. On Nov 12, 2025 it closed at $115.75, a total return of −5.0% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +3.1%. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 90 days

NFLX closed at $121.90 on Oct 13, 2025. On Jan 9, 2026 it closed at $89.46, a total return of −26.6% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +5.0%. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 180 days

NFLX closed at $121.90 on Oct 13, 2025. On Apr 10, 2026 it closed at $103.01, a total return of −15.5% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +3.1%. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 1 year

NFLX closed at $121.90 on Oct 13, 2025. On Oct 13, 2026 it closed at $70.46, a total return of −42.2% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +18.6%. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 3 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Oct 12, 2028.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Oct 11, 2030.

Why: Stated deadline

Not yet resolved. The window closes Oct 11, 2030.

What was said around it

the company to a trillion-dollar market cap if they continue to execute. They're going to double the revenue, triple the profits, and gain 100 million subscribers at the same time, while having fast-growing ad profits as well. If the bear case that you can rely on at this point is that the PE ratio is a 40, if that's the only thing you can point out about this company, that it just has a high PE, it's it's a little bit higher than most companies, that is an incredibly weak bear case. Every other aspect of this company internally shows that it is going higher. The stock will be higher in the next 5 years, substantially higher. Now, there's some people that have suggested the bear case for Netflix is the content. In terms of content, Netflix actually has some of the best content in the world on their service all the time. We've gone through this over and over again. Squid Game brought in a whole new category of content. We have shows like Wednesday that are mega hits. We had Demon Hunters, which was a mega hit on Netflix just recently. Later this year, we have Stranger Things, the conclusion of the series, which reports are now saying that every episode will be an hour and a half to

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Joseph CarlsonNFLXwill fall to $70.00

“I think that Netflix is a buy today right now. But I want to warn investors that this is a highly volatile company and this could go much lower. I could see on the low end, in fact, I could I could really see it happen where Netflix trades all the way down to around $70 per share.”

Jan 14, 2026 · after 180 days

Partly correct so far · 180 days−16.1%

Joseph CarlsonNFLXwill rise

“the financials should support massive share price increases over the next 5 years. For me, it's worth buying.”

Nov 5, 2025 · after 180 days

Incorrect so far · 180 days−17.0%

Joseph CarlsonNFLX— no direction stated

“By the end of 2026, I believe that Netflix will have around $14 billion in free cash flow generated based on the operating leverage, based on the growth of this company.”

Nov 5, 2025 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Joseph CarlsonNFLXwill rise

“I expect the earnings per share growth to grow above 25% over the next 3 years. Netflix will be one of the fastest EPS growing companies in the market.”

Nov 5, 2025 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Joseph CarlsonNFLXwill rise

“In fact, I believe by 2031, so around 5 years from now, this will be about double. We'll see operating margins of around 50%.”

Nov 5, 2025 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Joseph CarlsonNFLXwill rise

“The revenue should continue to grow between 14 to 16% throughout 2026, another entire year of the same speed of revenue growth. That is my estimate for this company.”

Nov 5, 2025 · after 1 year

Not verifiable