Joseph Carlson: NFLX will rise

Said on Nov 5, 2025, at 19:59 in the video.

What was said
Joseph Carlson

@josephcarlsonshow

“In fact, I believe by 2031, so around 5 years from now, this will be about double. We'll see operating margins of around 50%.”
Watch at 19:596 Stocks To Buy In An Overvalued Market
PredictionNFLXwill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Not verifiable

Not verifiable: target not a price. The target was recorded as a percentage (a growth rate, a return or a multiple), not as a price of NFLX.

30 days

Not verifiable

90 days

Not verifiable

180 days

Not verifiable

1 year

Not verifiable

The window it was checked over

NFLXWindow checked
$40$60$80$100$120$140May 2025Aug 2025Dec 2025Apr 2026Jul 2026Nov 2026Said on Nov 5, 2025
$40$60$80$100$120$140May 2025Nov 2025May 2026Nov 2026Said on Nov 5, 2025

NFLX closing prices, adjusted for splits. The shaded span is the one-year window: it starts at the first close after the video went public and ends at the last close on or before one year after the day the video was published.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-PT v4Not verifiable————
90 daysR-PT v4Not verifiable————
180 daysR-PT v4Not verifiable————
1 yearR-PT v4Not verifiable————
3 yearsR-PT v4Not verifiable————
5 yearsR-PT v4Not verifiable————
Why: 30 days

Not verifiable: target not a price. The target was recorded as a percentage (a growth rate, a return or a multiple), not as a price of NFLX.

Why: 90 days

Not verifiable: target not a price. The target was recorded as a percentage (a growth rate, a return or a multiple), not as a price of NFLX.

Why: 180 days

Not verifiable: target not a price. The target was recorded as a percentage (a growth rate, a return or a multiple), not as a price of NFLX.

Why: 1 year

Not verifiable: target not a price. The target was recorded as a percentage (a growth rate, a return or a multiple), not as a price of NFLX.

Why: 3 years

Not verifiable: target not a price. The target was recorded as a percentage (a growth rate, a return or a multiple), not as a price of NFLX.

Why: 5 years

Not verifiable: target not a price. The target was recorded as a percentage (a growth rate, a return or a multiple), not as a price of NFLX.

What was said around it

of the company continue to tick up every single day. In fact, Netflix's operating margins are so high now, it's in the higher premium category of highly efficient companies. Without the one-time tax hit from Brazil, the operating margins were closer to 29%. above expectations. Once again, they're guiding for future growth and operating margins. My estimate is that they will continue to keep their content spend tight. It'll come in under analyst expectations. The operating margins will continue to tick up above analyst expectations. In fact, I believe by 2031, so around 5 years from now, this will be about double. We'll see operating margins of around 50%. That seems crazy. Now, Netflix with 50% operating margins, but they have a clear path to get there. They have incredible levels of operating leverage. Companies that create content scale incredibly well. If you have a company that has that level of operating leverage, you're also going to see exponential earnings per share growth. The earnings per share grew by 35% year-over-year. And that's with this last quarter having a one-time substantial tax hit. It'd be even faster without that. I expect the earnings per share growth to grow

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Joseph CarlsonNFLXwill fall to $70.00

“I think that Netflix is a buy today right now. But I want to warn investors that this is a highly volatile company and this could go much lower. I could see on the low end, in fact, I could I could really see it happen where Netflix trades all the way down to around $70 per share.”

Jan 14, 2026 · after 180 days

Partly correct so far · 180 days−16.1%

Joseph CarlsonNFLXwill rise

“the financials should support massive share price increases over the next 5 years. For me, it's worth buying.”

Nov 5, 2025 · after 180 days

Incorrect so far · 180 days−17.0%

Joseph CarlsonNFLX— no direction stated

“By the end of 2026, I believe that Netflix will have around $14 billion in free cash flow generated based on the operating leverage, based on the growth of this company.”

Nov 5, 2025 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Joseph CarlsonNFLXwill rise

“I expect the earnings per share growth to grow above 25% over the next 3 years. Netflix will be one of the fastest EPS growing companies in the market.”

Nov 5, 2025 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Joseph CarlsonNFLXwill rise

“The revenue should continue to grow between 14 to 16% throughout 2026, another entire year of the same speed of revenue growth. That is my estimate for this company.”

Nov 5, 2025 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Joseph CarlsonNFLXwill rise

“I believe that Netflix is not overvalued. I've studied this company for a long period of time and I still believe there's far more to come that's not being priced in for Netflix.”

Nov 5, 2025 · after 180 days

Incorrect so far · 180 days−17.0%