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Joseph Carlson: NFLX — no direction stated

Said on Nov 5, 2025, at 21:20 in the video.

What was said
Joseph Carlson

@josephcarlsonshow

“By the end of 2026, I believe that Netflix will have around $14 billion in free cash flow generated based on the operating leverage, based on the growth of this company.”
Watch at 21:206 Stocks To Buy In An Overvalued Market
PredictionNFLX— no direction statedChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Not verifiable

Not verifiable: target already reached. NFLX's first close after the video, $109.70 on 6 Nov 2025, was already at or above the target of $14.00 ($1.40 after later share splits).

30 days

Not verifiable

90 days

Not verifiable

180 days

Not verifiable

1 year

Not verifiable

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

NFLXWindow checked
$40$60$80$100$120$140May 2025Aug 2025Dec 2025Apr 2026Jul 2026Nov 2026Said on Nov 5, 2025
$40$60$80$100$120$140May 2025Nov 2025May 2026Nov 2026Said on Nov 5, 2025

NFLX closing prices, adjusted for splits. The shaded span is the one-year window: it starts at the first close after the video went public and ends at the last close on or before one year after the day the video was published.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-PT v4Not verifiable————
90 daysR-PT v4Not verifiable————
180 daysR-PT v4Not verifiable————
1 yearR-PT v4Not verifiable————
3 yearsR-PT v4Not verifiable————
5 yearsR-PT v4Not verifiable————
Why: 30 days

Not verifiable: target already reached. NFLX's first close after the video, $109.70 on 6 Nov 2025, was already at or above the target of $14.00 ($1.40 after later share splits).

Why: 90 days

Not verifiable: target already reached. NFLX's first close after the video, $109.70 on 6 Nov 2025, was already at or above the target of $14.00 ($1.40 after later share splits).

Why: 180 days

Not verifiable: target already reached. NFLX's first close after the video, $109.70 on 6 Nov 2025, was already at or above the target of $14.00 ($1.40 after later share splits).

Why: 1 year

Not verifiable: target already reached. NFLX's first close after the video, $109.70 on 6 Nov 2025, was already at or above the target of $14.00 ($1.40 after later share splits).

Why: 3 years

Not verifiable: target already reached. NFLX's first close after the video, $109.70 on 6 Nov 2025, was already at or above the target of $14.00 ($1.40 after later share splits).

Why: 5 years

Not verifiable: target already reached. NFLX's first close after the video, $109.70 on 6 Nov 2025, was already at or above the target of $14.00 ($1.40 after later share splits).

What was said around it

get to how all of this translates to pure free cash flow. The best estimate of how much money a company's actually making. Netflix is one of the least dilutive free cash flow companies you could buy. With only a tiny amount, $300 million of stockbased compared to $9 billion of free cash flow. And Netflix is growing its free cash flow at an incredibly fast pace. 26% year-over-year. In 2025, they're guiding for $9 billion in free cash flow, a notable step up of 7 billion just a year ago. But it doesn't end there. By the end of 2026, I believe that Netflix will have around $14 billion in free cash flow generated based on the operating leverage, based on the growth of this company. So, we're going to go from 7 to 9 all the way up to around 14. this company's free cash flow will continue to spike. And on top of that, it's not just free cash flow. It's also free cash flow per share that's growing even faster. Netflix is now a company that's in a place to do a massive amount of share repurchases. This is an incredible fortunate situation to be in. Netflix is a stock that I believe is less obvious than the others because it's still priced as a premium company, but I believe it will have above

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Joseph CarlsonNFLXwill fall to $70.00

“I think that Netflix is a buy today right now. But I want to warn investors that this is a highly volatile company and this could go much lower. I could see on the low end, in fact, I could I could really see it happen where Netflix trades all the way down to around $70 per share.”

Jan 14, 2026 · after 180 days

Partly correct so far · 180 days−16.1%

Joseph CarlsonNFLXwill rise

“the financials should support massive share price increases over the next 5 years. For me, it's worth buying.”

Nov 5, 2025 · after 180 days

Incorrect so far · 180 days−17.0%

Joseph CarlsonNFLXwill rise

“I expect the earnings per share growth to grow above 25% over the next 3 years. Netflix will be one of the fastest EPS growing companies in the market.”

Nov 5, 2025 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Joseph CarlsonNFLXwill rise

“In fact, I believe by 2031, so around 5 years from now, this will be about double. We'll see operating margins of around 50%.”

Nov 5, 2025 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Joseph CarlsonNFLXwill rise

“The revenue should continue to grow between 14 to 16% throughout 2026, another entire year of the same speed of revenue growth. That is my estimate for this company.”

Nov 5, 2025 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Joseph CarlsonNFLXwill rise

“I believe that Netflix is not overvalued. I've studied this company for a long period of time and I still believe there's far more to come that's not being priced in for Netflix.”

Nov 5, 2025 · after 180 days

Incorrect so far · 180 days−17.0%