Joseph Carlson: NFLX will rise

Said on Nov 5, 2025, at 16:17 in the video.

What was said
Joseph Carlson

@josephcarlsonshow

“I believe that Netflix is not overvalued. I've studied this company for a long period of time and I still believe there's far more to come that's not being priced in for Netflix.”
Watch at 16:176 Stocks To Buy In An Overvalued Market
PredictionNFLXwill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 180 days
Incorrect so far · 180 days

Entry price (first close after the video)

$109.70

Nov 6, 2025

Price at close

$91.02

May 4, 2026

Total return, dividends included

−17.0%

S&P 500 +7.7%

NFLX closed at $109.70 on Nov 6, 2025. On May 4, 2026 it closed at $91.02, a total return of −17.0% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +7.7%. The call was that it would rise.

30 days

Incorrect

90 days

Incorrect

180 days

Incorrect

1 year

Pending

The window it was checked over

NFLXWindow checked
$40$60$80$100$120$140May 2025Aug 2025Dec 2025Apr 2026Jul 2026Nov 2026Said on Nov 5, 2025
$40$60$80$100$120$140May 2025Nov 2025May 2026Nov 2026Said on Nov 5, 2025

NFLX closing prices, adjusted for splits. The shaded span is the one-year window: it starts at the first close after the video went public and ends at the last close on or before one year after the day the video was published.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-DIR v4Incorrect$109.70Nov 6, 2025$100.24Dec 5, 2025−8.6%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 +2.3%
90 daysR-DIR v4Incorrect$109.70Nov 6, 2025$79.94Feb 3, 2026−27.1%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 +3.2%
180 daysR-DIR v4Incorrect$109.70Nov 6, 2025$91.02May 4, 2026−17.0%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 +7.7%
1 yearR-DIR v4Pending——Nov 5, 2026——
3 yearsR-DIR v4Pending——Nov 3, 2028——
5 yearsR-DIR v4Pending——Nov 4, 2030——
Why: 30 days

NFLX closed at $109.70 on Nov 6, 2025. On Dec 5, 2025 it closed at $100.24, a total return of −8.6% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +2.3%. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 90 days

NFLX closed at $109.70 on Nov 6, 2025. On Feb 3, 2026 it closed at $79.94, a total return of −27.1% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +3.2%. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 180 days

NFLX closed at $109.70 on Nov 6, 2025. On May 4, 2026 it closed at $91.02, a total return of −17.0% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +7.7%. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 1 year

Not yet resolved. The window closes Nov 5, 2026.

Why: 3 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Nov 3, 2028.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Nov 4, 2030.

What was said around it

Fund. In this portfolio, I have a more concentrated look on a few companies, and one of them that has been an incredible winner in this portfolio, of course, is Netflix. It was as high as $1,300 per share, and now it's below $1,100 per share. While some investors will interpret this as an overpriced company coming back down to a more realistic valuation, I see it differently. I think that this is an opportunity for investors that have missed out on Netflix to finally take a bite. And the reason why is because I believe that Netflix is not overvalued. I've studied this company for a long period of time and I still believe there's far more to come that's not being priced in for Netflix. For example, we have the immediate catalyst. We have the things that Wall Street knows about that investors are expecting like the Stranger Things finale. This is going to be what people talk about the end of this year. This is going to be a massive shared TV experience. across the entire internet. There's not many things that unite hundreds of millions of people across the world under a single event. The other most recent thing that's caused hundreds of millions of people to unite under a single event is

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Joseph CarlsonNFLXwill fall to $70.00

“I think that Netflix is a buy today right now. But I want to warn investors that this is a highly volatile company and this could go much lower. I could see on the low end, in fact, I could I could really see it happen where Netflix trades all the way down to around $70 per share.”

Jan 14, 2026 · after 180 days

Partly correct so far · 180 days−16.1%

Joseph CarlsonNFLXwill rise

“the financials should support massive share price increases over the next 5 years. For me, it's worth buying.”

Nov 5, 2025 · after 180 days

Incorrect so far · 180 days−17.0%

Joseph CarlsonNFLX— no direction stated

“By the end of 2026, I believe that Netflix will have around $14 billion in free cash flow generated based on the operating leverage, based on the growth of this company.”

Nov 5, 2025 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Joseph CarlsonNFLXwill rise

“I expect the earnings per share growth to grow above 25% over the next 3 years. Netflix will be one of the fastest EPS growing companies in the market.”

Nov 5, 2025 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Joseph CarlsonNFLXwill rise

“In fact, I believe by 2031, so around 5 years from now, this will be about double. We'll see operating margins of around 50%.”

Nov 5, 2025 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Joseph CarlsonNFLXwill rise

“The revenue should continue to grow between 14 to 16% throughout 2026, another entire year of the same speed of revenue growth. That is my estimate for this company.”

Nov 5, 2025 · after 1 year

Not verifiable