Coin Bureau: Mortgage rates will rise

Said on Aug 13, 2022, at 16:21 in the video.

What was saidAug 13, 2022

Coin Bureau

@coinbureau

“mortgage rates will continue to climb too and this will cause the cost of new housing to continue its current fall”

Watch at 16:21Housing Market Crash: It's Coming & This is WHY!!

PredictionMortgage rateswill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years

What happenedafter 1 year

Correct

Reading when said

5.22%

Aug 13, 2022

Reading at close

6.96%

Aug 13, 2023

Change

+1.74 pp

Mortgage rates stood at 5.22% at the start of the window and 6.96% at Aug 13, 2023, a change of +1.74 pp (MORTGAGE30US, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

30 days

Correct

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidence Report a problem

The window it was checked over

Mortgage ratesWindow checkedRecession (NBER)

30-year fixed mortgage rate: Freddie Mac PMMS via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked

Result at every window
Window	Result	At the start	At the end	Change	Benchmark
30 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4	Correct	5.22%	5.89%Sep 12, 2022	+0.67 pp	—
90 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4	Correct	5.22%	7.08%Nov 11, 2022	+1.86 pp	—
180 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4	Correct	5.22%	6.12%Feb 9, 2023	+0.90 pp	—
1 yearR-MACRO-LEVEL v4	Correct	5.22%	6.96%Aug 13, 2023	+1.74 pp	—
3 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4	Correct	5.22%	6.63%Aug 12, 2025	+1.41 pp	—
5 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4	Pending	—	—Aug 12, 2027	—	—

Why: 30 days

Mortgage rates stood at 5.22% at the start of the window and 5.89% at Sep 12, 2022, a change of +0.67 pp (MORTGAGE30US, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 90 days

Mortgage rates stood at 5.22% at the start of the window and 7.08% at Nov 11, 2022, a change of +1.86 pp (MORTGAGE30US, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 180 days

Mortgage rates stood at 5.22% at the start of the window and 6.12% at Feb 9, 2023, a change of +0.90 pp (MORTGAGE30US, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 1 year

Why: 3 years

Mortgage rates stood at 5.22% at the start of the window and 6.63% at Aug 12, 2025, a change of +1.41 pp (MORTGAGE30US, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Aug 12, 2027.

What was said around it

factors that are completely outside of their control to be blunt it looks like inflation is going to stick around for a while especially in regions like europe where most countries are expected to see energy prices triple as winter approaches this will force the ecb and other central banks in similar situations to raise interest rates to try and minimize the demand as interest rates continue to rise so too will the cost of most debts this means asset markets will continue to crash as people sell off their assets to meet their debt obligations mortgage rates will continue to climb too and this will cause the cost of new housing to continue its current fall at some point all the people who purchased extra properties for investment purposes will start to wonder whether it makes more sense to sell and some of them probably will if the value of their other assets has collapsed note that pension funds have lots of money in the stock market now as quarterly earnings reports continue to come in short companies will accelerate the rate at which they're laying off employees and likely begin cutting salaries starting with top executives this will result in less leisure and business travel which will

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