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Joseph Carlson: MSFT will rise

Said on Nov 9, 2022, at 2:12 in the video.

What was said
Joseph Carlson

@josephcarlsonshow

“I think it could take up to a year or two until Microsoft gets another bid and the multiples expand”
Watch at 2:12Why Investors Are Panic Selling Disney (-13% Today)
PredictionMSFTwill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Entry price (first close after the video)

$242.98

Nov 10, 2022

Price at close

$360.69

Nov 9, 2023

Total return, dividends included

+49.9%

S&P 500 +11.6%

MSFT closed at $242.98 on Nov 10, 2022. On Nov 9, 2023 it closed at $360.69, a total return of +49.9% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +11.6%. The call was that it would rise.

30 days

Correct

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

MSFTWindow checked
$200$250$300$350$400May 2022Sep 2022Jan 2023May 2023Sep 2023Jan 2024Said on Nov 9, 2022
$200$250$300$350$400May 2022Dec 2022Jun 2023Jan 2024Said on Nov 9, 2022

MSFT closing prices, adjusted for splits. The shaded span is the one-year window: it starts at the first close after the video went public and ends at the last close on or before one year after the day the video was published.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-DIR v4Correct$242.98Nov 10, 2022$245.42Dec 9, 2022+1.3%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 −0.4%
90 daysR-DIR v4Correct$242.98Nov 10, 2022$267.56Feb 7, 2023+10.4%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 +5.7%
180 daysR-DIR v4Correct$242.98Nov 10, 2022$308.65May 8, 2023+27.7%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 +5.5%
1 yearR-DIR v4Correct$242.98Nov 10, 2022$360.69Nov 9, 2023+49.9%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 +11.6%
3 yearsR-DIR v4Correct$242.98Nov 10, 2022$496.82Nov 7, 2025+109.6%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 +77.1%
5 yearsR-DIR v4Pending——Nov 8, 2027——
Why: 30 days

MSFT closed at $242.98 on Nov 10, 2022. On Dec 9, 2022 it closed at $245.42, a total return of +1.3% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was −0.4%. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 90 days

MSFT closed at $242.98 on Nov 10, 2022. On Feb 7, 2023 it closed at $267.56, a total return of +10.4% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +5.7%. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 180 days

MSFT closed at $242.98 on Nov 10, 2022. On May 8, 2023 it closed at $308.65, a total return of +27.7% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +5.5%. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 1 year

MSFT closed at $242.98 on Nov 10, 2022. On Nov 9, 2023 it closed at $360.69, a total return of +49.9% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +11.6%. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 3 years

MSFT closed at $242.98 on Nov 10, 2022. On Nov 7, 2025 it closed at $496.82, a total return of +109.6% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +77.1%. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Nov 8, 2027.

What was said around it

companies are strong fundamentally and will continue to compound in the future the tech category has been hit the hardest this is actually a category that I haven't made many changes to this year I've added slightly to Microsoft as this one has dropped but the price has continued to drop and I'm not going to be able to call the bottom for any of these stocks right now I think Microsoft is undervalued and I believe that for a very long period of time but undervalued stocks can remain undervalued for a long period of time especially in a bear Market I think it could take up to a year or two until Microsoft gets another bid and the multiples expand in the meantime this is a company that I feel very comfortable holding I don't think that I'm going to lose money on it in the long term apple is another one that's been a big winner overall but this company's retracing a bit with the overall sell-off we're down to ten thousand dollars in gains in terms of Apple this is another one that I just look at the five year the tenure and I see this company right now as incredibly strong they have a lot of levers to pull to build increased profitability in the future and I don't really consider this company

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Joseph CarlsonMSFTwill rise

“I believe on the long-term future this will likely mean a better future for them than had Sam stayed directly at open AI because now he is part of the Microsoft team with literally unlimited resources”

Nov 20, 2023 · after 1 year

Correct+12.6%

Coin BureauMSFTwill fall

“it's safe to assume that Microsoft will trade lower today”

Nov 20, 2023 · after 1 year

Incorrect+11.3%

Joseph Carlsona call with no clear direction

“so for right now I'll consider it a hold and look for other opportunities”

Nov 8, 2023

Not scored

Joseph Carlsona call under review

“that means that the stock price in 2030 would be 662 dollars it would be a double from where it is today a double in seven years is about a ten percent return so that seems very reasonable”

Jun 27, 2023

Not scored

Joseph CarlsonMSFTwill outperform

“so if I'm looking at this specific battle I think Microsoft has one now this isn't to say that I'm bearish on Google I think the company has a lot going for them and I do think that they'll put up a very strong defense of their Market share”

Feb 8, 2023 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Joseph Carlsona call with no clear direction

“so when I look at the risk reward here I look at Microsoft as a company that can only benefit in this situation all they can do is grow a market share it's unlikely they're going to lose market share they're 3.4 percent”

Feb 8, 2023

Not scored