Joseph Carlson: a call under review

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MSFT closing prices, adjusted for splits. The shaded span is the one-year window: it starts at the first close after the video went public and ends at the last close on or before one year after the day the video was published.

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typically does not trade at a 6.6 percent free cash flow yield what cash flow yield it will trade at is up for debate but based on the quality of the company the Diversified product offering the reoccurring subscription the high margin and the incredible credit worthiness I believe that Microsoft will trade around two and a half to three percent free cash flow yield so let's just assume for a minute here that the company trades at roughly uh 3.3 percent free cash flow yield just to make the math very simple that means that the stock price in 2030 would be 662 dollars it would be a double from where it is today a double in seven years is about a ten percent return so that seems very reasonable but we also have to keep in mind that the free cash flow growing is not the only thing that gives shareholder returns there's a couple more things that may help out shareholders total returns Microsoft pays a growing dividend for the past 10 years it's grown at around 11 per year this dividend should help out a little bit with the total returns another thing that may help out with Microsoft is the shares outstanding going down over time they do around one percent of share BuyBacks per year so based on

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