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Joseph Carlson: NFLX will rise

Said on Apr 16, 2025, at 22:41 in the video.

What was said
Joseph Carlson

@josephcarlsonshow

“There will be volatility over the upcoming earnings report, but Netflix, in my mind, remains today one of the most predictable and best investments long term.”
Watch at 22:41The Trade War Just Got A Lot Worse
PredictionNFLXwill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Entry price (first close after the video)

$96.16

Apr 16, 2025

Price at close

$107.79

Apr 16, 2026

Total return, dividends included

+12.1%

S&P 500 +35.0%

NFLX closed at $96.16 on Apr 16, 2025. On Apr 16, 2026 it closed at $107.79, a total return of +12.1% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +35.0%. The call was that it would rise.

30 days

Correct

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

NFLXWindow checked
$60$80$100$120$140Oct 2024Feb 2025Jun 2025Oct 2025Feb 2026Jun 2026Said on Apr 16, 2025
$60$80$100$120$140Oct 2024May 2025Nov 2025Jun 2026Said on Apr 16, 2025

NFLX closing prices, adjusted for splits. The shaded span is the one-year window: it starts at the first close after the video went public and ends at the last close on or before one year after the day the video was published.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-DIR v4Correct$96.16Apr 16, 2025$119.15May 16, 2025+23.9%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 +13.0%
90 daysR-DIR v4Correct$96.16Apr 16, 2025$126.03Jul 15, 2025+31.1%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 +18.7%
180 daysR-DIR v4Correct$96.16Apr 16, 2025$121.90Oct 13, 2025+26.8%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 +26.9%
1 yearR-DIR v4Correct$96.16Apr 16, 2025$107.79Apr 16, 2026+12.1%Total return, dividends includedS&P 500 +35.0%
3 yearsR-DIR v4Pending——Apr 13, 2028——
5 yearsR-DIR v4Pending——Apr 15, 2030——
Why: 30 days

NFLX closed at $96.16 on Apr 16, 2025. On May 16, 2025 it closed at $119.15, a total return of +23.9% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +13.0%. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 90 days

NFLX closed at $96.16 on Apr 16, 2025. On Jul 15, 2025 it closed at $126.03, a total return of +31.1% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +18.7%. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 180 days

NFLX closed at $96.16 on Apr 16, 2025. On Oct 13, 2025 it closed at $121.90, a total return of +26.8% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +26.9%. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 1 year

NFLX closed at $96.16 on Apr 16, 2025. On Apr 16, 2026 it closed at $107.79, a total return of +12.1% (dividends included). SPY's total return over the same window was +35.0%. The call was that it would rise.

Why: 3 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Apr 13, 2028.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Apr 15, 2030.

What was said around it

knew that this quarter would be bad. They would instead try to temper investors expectations. They' talk about being cautious in the near term. Overall, this news is just a rehash and a restatement of what I've been saying about Netflix for the past five years. I firmly agree with everything the management is saying here. This is Netflix's game to lose. I don't see any meaningful deterrence or competition to them. I don't see any meaningful obstruction of their goals. I see a company with an incredible opportunity. There will be volatility over the upcoming earnings report, but Netflix, in my mind, remains today one of the most predictable and best investments long term. That's going to be it for this episode.

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Joseph CarlsonNFLXwill fall to $70.00

“I think that Netflix is a buy today right now. But I want to warn investors that this is a highly volatile company and this could go much lower. I could see on the low end, in fact, I could I could really see it happen where Netflix trades all the way down to around $70 per share.”

Jan 14, 2026 · after 180 days

Partly correct so far · 180 days−16.1%

Joseph CarlsonNFLXwill rise

“the financials should support massive share price increases over the next 5 years. For me, it's worth buying.”

Nov 5, 2025 · after 180 days

Incorrect so far · 180 days−17.0%

Joseph CarlsonNFLX— no direction stated

“By the end of 2026, I believe that Netflix will have around $14 billion in free cash flow generated based on the operating leverage, based on the growth of this company.”

Nov 5, 2025 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Joseph CarlsonNFLXwill rise

“I expect the earnings per share growth to grow above 25% over the next 3 years. Netflix will be one of the fastest EPS growing companies in the market.”

Nov 5, 2025 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Joseph CarlsonNFLXwill rise

“In fact, I believe by 2031, so around 5 years from now, this will be about double. We'll see operating margins of around 50%.”

Nov 5, 2025 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Joseph CarlsonNFLXwill rise

“The revenue should continue to grow between 14 to 16% throughout 2026, another entire year of the same speed of revenue growth. That is my estimate for this company.”

Nov 5, 2025 · after 1 year

Not verifiable