Joseph Carlson: a call under review

Said on Oct 3, 2022, at 26:17 in the video.

What was said
Joseph Carlson

@josephcarlsonshow

“my Microsoft fair value analysis is $350 and I stand by that currently the company trades at 239 which means I believe there's around 40 6% upside in this stock before it gets to where it should be valued”
Watch at 26:17Responding To Critics: How I Value My Companies | Joseph Carlson Ep. 276
Predictiona call under review
What happened
Not scored

How this call was recorded (its subject, its direction or a figure) is being checked again, because the words may not say what was first recorded. It is not scored until a person has reviewed it.

The window it was checked over

MSFTWindow checkedTarget named
$200$250$300$350$400Apr 2022Aug 2022Dec 2022Apr 2023Aug 2023Dec 2023Target $350.00Said on Oct 3, 2022
$200$250$300$350$400Apr 2022Oct 2022May 2023Dec 2023Target $350.00Said on Oct 3, 2022

MSFT closing prices, adjusted for splits. The shaded span is the one-year window: it starts at the first close after the video went public and ends at the last close on or before one year after the day the video was published.

Result at every window

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How this call was recorded (its subject, its direction or a figure) is being checked again, because the words may not say what was first recorded. It is not scored until a person has reviewed it.

What was said around it

company should be trading right now at above a 25 Ford PE ratio and the company currently trades at a 19 so I think the company's fair value is around 105 overvalues in the range of 135 and right now where it's currently trading I think it's undervalued now moving on from Texas Roadhouse we have to talk about Microsoft this is a company that many people had a lot of push back saying that my Fair Value Estimate is wildly optimistic and that I'm accepting a lower return When investing in Microsoft my Microsoft fair value analysis is $350 and I stand by that currently the company trades at 239 which means I believe there's around 40 6% upside in this stock before it gets to where it should be valued so let's go ahead and look at Microsoft here the big problem with Microsoft is it trades at that 23.5 Ford PE ratio and again the S&P 500 trades at a 16 on average that means that based on the PE Ratio Microsoft is 40% more expensive that's how much more you're paying for Microsoft in relation to the S&P 500 based on a price to earnings multiple but again Microsoft also has differences in the economics of their business for example if we look at that very important returns they're getting on the

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