Andrei Jikh: Lãi suất chính sách Fed — không nêu hướng

Khung thời gian được kiểm chứng

Cận trên của biên độ lãi suất mục tiêu quỹ liên bang (Fed funds): Hội đồng Thống đốc Cục Dự trữ Liên bang Mỹ, qua FRED, số liệu công bố lần đầu. Vùng tô là khung thời gian được kiểm chứng; vùng xám là các giai đoạn suy thoái.

Ngữ cảnh xung quanh

It's bad news because a strong economy with high inflation means rates have to stay high or go higher. You can't have a strong economy and then start to lower rates. It's like adding gasoline to the fire. You want to have a balance. So, if Kevin Warsh stays hawkish, aka rates stay the same, and that's how he talks about it, expect stocks to follow gold and Bitcoin most likely lower. Now, here's what makes this meeting sort of interesting. Remember, 97.4% of the market already expects no change to the rates on Wednesday. So, the rate decision itself is not the news. I think we already know what he's going to do, which is nothing. The news is what Kevin Warsh signals, subtly or not subtly, about the future. Every word of his press conference on Wednesday is going to be looked at by every trader on Wall Street. They're going to be hyper-analytical about every word. And I think the market's reaction in the after hours is going to tell us a lot more than anything than what he actually says. Now, for now, just understand that's most likely what Kevin Warsh's plan will be. And then for now, it's also on pause. Right, in order for it to come back to life, one thing has to happen first. It's that

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