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Coin Bureau: Inflation will rise

Said on Sep 19, 2022, at 5:45 in the video.

What was said
Coin Bureau

@coinbureau

“so what this means is that inflation is likely to surge over the winter and this will force central banks around the world to continue raising interest rates aggressively”
Watch at 5:45Crypto News: ETH Crash, SEC, Do Kwon, Terra, CPI & MORE!
PredictionInflationwill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Incorrect

Reading when said

8.25%

Sep 19, 2022

Reading at close

3.61%

Sep 19, 2023

Change

−4.64 pp

Inflation stood at 8.25% at the start of the window and 3.61% at Sep 19, 2023, a change of −4.64 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

30 days

Incorrect

90 days

Incorrect

180 days

Incorrect

1 year

Incorrect

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

InflationWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
−2%0%2%4%6%8%10%201920202021202220232024Said on Sep 19, 2022
−5%0%5%10%2019202120222024Said on Sep 19, 2022

Consumer price index (CPI): U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Incorrect8.25%7.71%Oct 19, 2022−0.54 pp—
90 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Incorrect8.25%6.4%Dec 18, 2022−1.86 pp—
180 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Incorrect8.25%4.9%Mar 18, 2023−3.35 pp—
1 yearR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Incorrect8.25%3.61%Sep 19, 2023−4.64 pp—
3 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Incorrect8.25%3.08%Sep 18, 2025−5.18 pp—
5 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Pending——Sep 18, 2027——
Why: 30 days

Inflation stood at 8.25% at the start of the window and 7.71% at Oct 19, 2022, a change of −0.54 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 90 days

Inflation stood at 8.25% at the start of the window and 6.40% at Dec 18, 2022, a change of −1.86 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 180 days

Inflation stood at 8.25% at the start of the window and 4.90% at Mar 18, 2023, a change of −3.35 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 1 year

Inflation stood at 8.25% at the start of the window and 3.61% at Sep 19, 2023, a change of −4.64 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 3 years

Inflation stood at 8.25% at the start of the window and 3.08% at Sep 18, 2025, a change of −5.18 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Sep 18, 2027.

What was said around it

countries are planning on imposing a global price cap on russian oil come early december the kremlin has responded by saying that it will effectively cut all exports of all kinds to the west if this price cap is applied meanwhile the u.s treasury department has threatened to sanction any country that makes quote significant purchases of oil above the price cap this is probably why treasury secretary janet yellen recently predicted that oil prices will rise in the winter she knows the price cap will have this effect so what this means is that inflation is likely to surge over the winter and this will force central banks around the world to continue raising interest rates aggressively to bring demand back in line with supply as jerome recently said seems he doesn't know that demand for heat in winter isn't elastic in terms of crypto specific factors the most significant was of course the merge which saw ethereum successfully transition from proof of work to proof of stake last thursday the entire crypto market was rallying up to the merge but as you all know well the market crashed a few hours after the event in addition to the poor cpi print from the day before eth's poor price action was

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: a call with no clear direction

“they're now expecting interest rates to increase a little bit in 2026 before falling back down again in 2027 and once again in 2028. They also expect inflation to remain elevated at 3.6% throughout 2026 before eventually falling back down again.”

Jun 17, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Inflation will rise to 3.6%

“They also expect inflation to remain elevated at 3.6% throughout 2026 before eventually falling back down again.”

Jun 17, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephana call under review

“First, taxes are going up.”

Jun 1, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephana call with no clear direction

“First, we could see inflation slowly subside and yields come back down on their own, or yields keep going up and eventually the Federal Reserve has to step in.”

May 18, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephan, relaying Goldman Sachs: Inflation — around 1%

“Goldman Sachs estimates that this would still push inflation up by 1% through mid-2026.”

Apr 20, 2026

Relayed

Coin Bureau, relaying Federal Reserve: Inflation will fall to 2.7%

“the Federal Reserve's   recent summary of economic projections insists  that inflation will magically settle at just   2.7% over the exact same time frame.”

Apr 9, 2026

Relayed