Graham Stephan, relaying Goldman Sachs: Inflation — around 1%

The window it was checked over

Consumer price index (CPI): U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

What was said around it

result, energy prices across the board jumped over 10% with gasoline rising over 20% in a single month. In fact, this one category pushed inflation back up to 3.3%. On top of that, housing also makes up 35% of the inflation report. And even as everything else has started to come down, housing is not. So you have some of the biggest categories out there, energy and housing, both going up at the exact same time. The second, we also have tariff inflation. Even though this seems like a problem of 2025, because no one talks about it anymore, the reality is Goldman Sachs estimates that this would still push inflation up by 1% through mid-2026. Finally, third, we have the secret hotspot that's quietly getting worse, and that would be the frozen labor market. See, here's where things are getting unusual. Even though the 2026 jobs market looks okay on paper, layoffs are relatively low and unemployment's only at 4.4%. Beneath the surface, things are starting to crack. Like in February alone, the economy actually lost about 92,000 jobs, one of the weakest prints in years. On top of that, fewer people are quitting their jobs, but not because things are great. It's because they're afraid they wouldn't

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