Graham Stephan: a call with no clear direction

The window it was checked over

Consumer price index (CPI): U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

What was said around it

and maybe you could go back at this and it ages terribly. But I do think that this is a sign that the free money era is really coming to a bit of an end, at least for the foreseeable future. And as a result of that, everything has to readjust to a market where interest rates are staying higher for longer. To me, the most realistic outcome here is not a sudden market crash that no one sees coming, but instead a slow constriction of the financial system that's probably going to result in either of these two scenarios. First, we could see inflation slowly subside and yields come back down on their own, or yields keep going up and eventually the Federal Reserve has to step in. However, there is a bit of a catch here because if the Fed steps in too soon and lowers interest rates before the economy can handle it, then inflation could get a lot worse. But if they wait too long, they risk letting higher interest rates hurt the economy, which also has its own consequences. So in terms of what you should do about this, I tend to think that this just means you should stay flexible. Don't take on too much leverage. Don't take on too much debt. Don't assume that these high interest rates are going

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