Graham Stephan: SPY will rise

Said on Mar 20, 2020, at 12:28 in the video.

What was saidMar 20, 2020

@grahamstephan

“my personal belief is that even though we don't know how long this is going to last I have a feeling that as quickly as we saw it come down we'll see it comes soaring back to life maybe not to the highs and to the extent that we saw a month ago but higher than where we are now”

Watch at 12:28The 2020 Recession | My Investing Concerns

PredictionSPYwill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years

Recorded as the stock market, a word for a group: this call is judged on SPY, the stand-in the method assigns to it.

What happenedafter 1 year

Correct

Entry price (first close after the video)

$222.95

Mar 23, 2020

Price at close

$389.48

Mar 19, 2021

Total return, dividends included

+77.5%

SPY closed at $222.95 on Mar 23, 2020. On Mar 19, 2021 it closed at $389.48, a total return of +77.5% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

30 days

Correct

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidence Report a problem

The window it was checked over

SPYWindow checked

SPY closing prices, adjusted for splits. The shaded span is the one-year window: it starts at the first close after the video went public and ends at the last close on or before one year after the day the video was published.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked

Result at every window
Window	Result	At the start	At the end	Change	Benchmark
30 daysR-DIR v4	Correct	$222.95Mar 23, 2020	$286.64Apr 17, 2020	+28.6%Total return, dividends included	—
90 daysR-DIR v4	Correct	$222.95Mar 23, 2020	$311.78Jun 18, 2020	+39.8%Total return, dividends included	—
180 daysR-DIR v4	Correct	$222.95Mar 23, 2020	$338.82Sep 16, 2020	+52.6%Total return, dividends included	—
1 yearR-DIR v4	Correct	$222.95Mar 23, 2020	$389.48Mar 19, 2021	+77.5%Total return, dividends included	—
3 yearsR-DIR v4	Correct	$222.95Mar 23, 2020	$393.74Mar 20, 2023	+84.9%Total return, dividends included	—
5 yearsR-DIR v4	Correct	$222.95Mar 23, 2020	$567.13Mar 19, 2025	+172.8%Total return, dividends included	—

Why: 30 days

SPY closed at $222.95 on Mar 23, 2020. On Apr 17, 2020 it closed at $286.64, a total return of +28.6% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 90 days

SPY closed at $222.95 on Mar 23, 2020. On Jun 18, 2020 it closed at $311.78, a total return of +39.8% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 180 days

SPY closed at $222.95 on Mar 23, 2020. On Sep 16, 2020 it closed at $338.82, a total return of +52.6% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 1 year

SPY closed at $222.95 on Mar 23, 2020. On Mar 19, 2021 it closed at $389.48, a total return of +77.5% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 3 years

SPY closed at $222.95 on Mar 23, 2020. On Mar 20, 2023 it closed at $393.74, a total return of +84.9% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 5 years

SPY closed at $222.95 on Mar 23, 2020. On Mar 19, 2025 it closed at $567.13, a total return of +172.8% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

What was said around it

scenarios no one actually knows what's going to happen and many people can argue that if it wasn't for this illness the entire economy would just be continuing on as usual so once we can remove this variable from the marketplace things should in theory recover once our confidence resumes in the market this affects everything across the board completely separate from our economic stability and the longer it takes to control the worse that's going to be for everybody my personal belief is that even though we don't know how long this is going to last I have a feeling that as quickly as we saw it come down we'll see it comes soaring back to life maybe not to the highs and to the extent that we saw a month ago but higher than where we are now although I think the longer that takes to happen the longer it's going to take us to recover from the losses that we've seen and listen the point of this video is not to scare anybody it's not to tell you the usual cut back on spending save money invest consistently and stay the course but instead to be real with you guys and say like hey you know what it's normal to be worried it's normal to be concerned it's normal to feel like you're panicked and we can't

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham StephanSPYwill outperform

“Instead, just invest the difference in the S&P 500. And over the long term, over the next 20 years, you're going to have so much more money than what you would have put in the property.”

Sep 9, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham Stephan, relaying Fidelity: SPY will rise

“Fidelity thinks that this is just the very beginning and the markets will continue going higher because of AI.”

Aug 25, 2026

Relayed

Andrei JikhSPYwill fall

“However, before the United States returns to the big print, the markets can continue going down.”

Aug 5, 2026 · after 30 days

Within band so far · 30 days+0.2%

Graham Stephan, relaying Morgan Stanley: SPY will rise

“On top of that, Morgan Stanley also believes 500 is going to rise this year, ending at 7,800. Citibank sees 7,700, and both JP Morgan and Wells Fargo see a relatively flat market for these next few months.”

Jul 27, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying Goldman Sachs: SPY will rise

“Goldman Sachs just raised their year-end S&P 500 target to 8,000, up from 7,600, which implies solid upside from where we are today.”

Jul 27, 2026

Relayed

Graham StephanSPYwill fall

“Historically, when the savings rate reaches an absolute low like this, the stock market tends to suffer in the years following. Now, I'm not saying that's a guarantee, but it's something at least worth considering.”

Jun 25, 2026 · after 90 days

Incorrect so far · 90 days+5.6%

The window it was checked over

Result at every window

What was said around it

More on SPY