Andrei Jikh: SPY will fall

Said on Aug 5, 2026, at 22:18 in the video.

What was said
Andrei Jikh

@andreijikh

“However, before the United States returns to the big print, the markets can continue going down.”
Watch at 22:18The U.S. Is Now Buying Yen
PredictionSPYwill fallChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years

Recorded as markets, a word for a group: this call is judged on SPY, the stand-in the method assigns to it.

What happenedafter 90 days
Correct so far · 90 days

Entry price (first close after the video)

$768.56

Aug 6, 2026

Price at close

$754.35

Nov 3, 2026

Total return, dividends included

−1.6%

SPY closed at $768.56 on Aug 6, 2026. On Nov 3, 2026 it closed at $754.35, a total return of −1.6% (dividends included). The call was that it would fall.

30 days

Within band

90 days

Correct

180 days

Pending

1 year

Pending

The window it was checked over

SPYWindow checked
$600$650$700$750$800Feb 2026May 2026Sep 2026Dec 2026Apr 2027Aug 2027Said on Aug 5, 2026
$600$650$700$750$800Feb 2026Aug 2026Feb 2027Aug 2027Said on Aug 5, 2026

SPY closing prices, adjusted for splits. The shaded span is the one-year window: it starts at the first close after the video went public and ends at the last close on or before one year after the day the video was published.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-DIR v4Within band$768.56Aug 6, 2026$770.19Sep 4, 2026+0.2%Total return, dividends included—
90 daysR-DIR v4Correct$768.56Aug 6, 2026$754.35Nov 3, 2026−1.6%Total return, dividends included—
180 daysR-DIR v4Pending——Feb 1, 2027——
1 yearR-DIR v4Pending——Aug 5, 2027——
3 yearsR-DIR v4Pending——Aug 3, 2029——
5 yearsR-DIR v4Pending——Aug 4, 2031——
Why: 30 days

SPY closed at $768.56 on Aug 6, 2026. On Sep 4, 2026 it closed at $770.19, a total return of +0.2% (dividends included). The call was that it would fall.

Why: 90 days

SPY closed at $768.56 on Aug 6, 2026. On Nov 3, 2026 it closed at $754.35, a total return of −1.6% (dividends included). The call was that it would fall.

Why: 180 days

Not yet resolved. The window closes Feb 1, 2027.

Why: 1 year

Not yet resolved. The window closes Aug 5, 2027.

Why: 3 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Aug 3, 2029.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Aug 4, 2031.

What was said around it

told in advance what they're going to do. So, here's how I'm personally thinking about all of this. And again, usual disclaimer, this is not financial advice. But, the way that I see it is assets in this world right now are grouped into two different buckets. Things they can print more of and things they can't. Now, dollars they can print. Bonds, promises that they pay back in dollars, printable. But, gold, Bitcoin, land, energy, physical assets, right? Commodities, the actual factories that they're trying to rebuild. Nobody can just print those. However, before the United States returns to the big print, the markets can continue going down. Because in order to print, there has to be an event to justify it. Now, one of the darkest versions of this theory was from Luke Gromen, and he basically said that everything that the US has been doing so far, like talking about having a strong dollar while not wanting it, but doing all these policies that sort of lead to a stronger dollar, and then restarting an inflationary war in the Middle East, that all looks like a mistake only if you assume that they're trying to avoid a crisis, but maybe the point is to trigger one. Because think about Kevin

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham StephanSPYwill outperform

“Instead, just invest the difference in the S&P 500. And over the long term, over the next 20 years, you're going to have so much more money than what you would have put in the property.”

Sep 9, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham Stephan, relaying Fidelity: SPY will rise

“Fidelity thinks that this is just the very beginning and the markets will continue going higher because of AI.”

Aug 25, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying Morgan Stanley: SPY will rise

“On top of that, Morgan Stanley also believes 500 is going to rise this year, ending at 7,800. Citibank sees 7,700, and both JP Morgan and Wells Fargo see a relatively flat market for these next few months.”

Jul 27, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying Goldman Sachs: SPY will rise

“Goldman Sachs just raised their year-end S&P 500 target to 8,000, up from 7,600, which implies solid upside from where we are today.”

Jul 27, 2026

Relayed

Graham StephanSPYwill fall

“Historically, when the savings rate reaches an absolute low like this, the stock market tends to suffer in the years following. Now, I'm not saying that's a guarantee, but it's something at least worth considering.”

Jun 25, 2026 · after 90 days

Incorrect so far · 90 days+5.6%

Andrei JikhSPYwill rise

“I think that's one of the main reasons why the stock market could be going up because the market is betting that they're going to pick devaluing the dollar and saving the bond market is the only way out.”

May 15, 2026 · after 90 days

Correct so far · 90 days+5.6%