“he warned that tariffs could nudge prices higher
in the second half of 2025.”Coin Bureau, relaying another source: Inflation will rise
Said on Jul 12, 2025, at 5:07 in the video.
The window it was checked over
Consumer price index (CPI): U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.
Result at every window
All windows are shown, so none is pickedSomebody else's forecast — not scored
What was said around it
concerns over Trump's public weighing of candidates, claiming the early nomination talks look designed to let a chosen successor guide expectations while Pal still occupies the big office. If Waller is that successor, the process has already begun. Waller's policy DNA certainly tilts doubbish but also pragmatic. He has spent much of the past year insisting that supply side shocks whether energy spikes or the renewed tariff barrage tend to wash out of the inflation data faster than people expect. In the same speech we referred to earlier, he warned that tariffs could nudge prices higher in the second half of 2025. Yet he framed that pop as temporary and said stable long-run inflation expectations are the real north star. The market translation is simple. Waller will tolerate a short-lived bump in inflation measures if it means safeguarding growth and employment. And he would likely lean toward rate cuts the moment the labor market starts to wobble. For bonds, that likely means lower short-term yields. And if he does become Fed chair, a flatter yield curve overall. And that's because the markets would expect the Fed to cut rates more quickly than the
What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.
More on Inflation
Graham Stephan, relaying another source: a call with no clear direction
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Jun 17, 2026
Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Inflation will rise to 3.6%
“They also expect inflation to remain elevated at 3.6% throughout 2026 before eventually falling back down again.”
Jun 17, 2026
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“First, taxes are going up.”
Jun 1, 2026
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May 18, 2026
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“Goldman Sachs estimates that this would still push inflation up by 1% through mid-2026.”
Apr 20, 2026
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“the Federal Reserve's recent summary of economic projections insists that inflation will magically settle at just 2.7% over the exact same time frame.”
Apr 9, 2026