Coin Bureau, relaying another source: Inflation will rise

Said on Jul 12, 2025, at 5:07 in the video.

The window it was checked over

InflationWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
0%2%4%6%8%10%202220232024202520252026Said on Jul 12, 2025
0%2%4%6%8%10%2022202320252026Said on Jul 12, 2025

Consumer price index (CPI): U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked

Somebody else's forecast — not scored

What was said around it

concerns  over Trump's public weighing of candidates,   claiming the early nomination talks look designed  to let a chosen successor guide expectations while   Pal still occupies the big office. If Waller is  that successor, the process has already begun.   Waller's policy DNA certainly tilts doubbish but  also pragmatic. He has spent much of the past year   insisting that supply side shocks whether energy  spikes or the renewed tariff barrage tend to   wash out of the inflation data faster than people  expect. In the same speech we referred to earlier,   he warned that tariffs could nudge prices higher  in the second half of 2025. Yet he framed that pop   as temporary and said stable long-run inflation  expectations are the real north star. The market   translation is simple. Waller will tolerate a  short-lived bump in inflation measures if it means   safeguarding growth and employment. And he would  likely lean toward rate cuts the moment the labor   market starts to wobble. For bonds, that likely  means lower short-term yields. And if he does   become Fed chair, a flatter yield curve overall.  And that's because the markets would expect the   Fed to cut rates more quickly than the

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